When Bay Area residents go to the polls Tuesday to vote, there won’t be nearly as many of them as usual.
More than 60% of the region’s nearly 4.5 million registered voters had already cast ballots by Monday morning, with more dropping their ballots in the mail and at polling places as the day went on. Ballots postmarked by election day will be counted if they arrive by Nov. 20.
“The votes keep coming in at a healthy clip,” said Tim Dupuis, Alameda County registrar of voters. “We’ve had two runs from our drop boxes (Monday), and the bags are coming in pretty full.”
Marin County leads the Bay Area with a 70% turnout in early voting, followed by San Mateo County at 65% and Santa Clara County at 63%. San Francisco was at 62% and Alameda County at 60%. The lowest early turnout was in Solano County, at 45%.
Besides the top-of-the-ticket race between President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden, Bay Area voters will see plenty of local issues and candidates on their ballots.
More than half the seats on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors are up for grabs, although Supervisor Hillary Ronen in District Nine is running unopposed. The outcome of the other five elections could change the political makeup of the city’s most powerful political body, which is now dominated by progressive supervisors.
The results could have a big impact on Mayor London Breed, who has few allies on the current board. She has sparred with the supervisors on major issues over the past few years, particularly when it comes to dealing with San Francisco’s swelling homeless population, the city’s dearth of housing and, more recently, how to fill a $1.5 billion budget deficit largely caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
Along with the board races, San Francisco voters will consider ballot measures that include a massive business tax reform and a proposal to allow noncitizens to serve on commissions and boards.
Meanwhile, five races in Oakland could also change the political makeup of the City Council. Twenty people, including four incumbents, are running for seats on the eight-member board.
As with San Francisco, homelessness is one of the biggest issues on Oakland’s ballot. The race comes as Oakland’s homelessness rate surpasses that of San Francisco and Berkeley. Some candidates have proposed ambitious and costly ideas for housing homeless people, including acquiring hotels and transforming an old jail into condominiums, which may be hard to achieve amid the economic turmoil of the pandemic.
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In Berkeley, voters face a packed ballot that includes questions over whether the city should form a new police review commission, if the mayor and council members should get raises, and if the city should adopt nearly $11 million in new taxes and fees.
And in Contra Costa County, voters are being asked whether to approve a half-cent sales tax increase, which supporters say would go toward public safety and early childhood education, among other uses.
Voters in San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties will vote on Measure RR, which would allow a 1/8-cent sales tax hike that would raise an estimated $108 million a year to keep Caltrain running and upgrade the commuter rail system. It needs to be approved by two-thirds of the vote in each of the three counties to take effect.
The rail system has lost nearly 95% of its ridership during the pandemic and is looking at an $18.5 million budget deficit.
The surge of early voting means that the first results released shortly after the polls close at 8 p.m. will likely set the tone for the evening. With well over half the votes already cast, measures and candidates with early leads could be hard to catch.
San Francisco, for example, had received 322,000 mail ballots by Monday morning, which should be counted by the time the polls close, said John Arntz, the city’s elections director. That includes 221,000 people who voted by mail, 94,000 who dropped off their ballots and 7,000 who have voted in person.
In 2018, the city’s first election night report included results from 118,000 mail votes, just under half the final total of 245,000 vote-by-mail ballots.
Arntz said he still expects droves of people to cast their votes Tuesday and that people should expect lines at the polls. The lines may look longer this year because everyone has to stand 6 feet apart.
“This is the highest turnout that we’ve had at this point in the election cycle, ever,” he said. “We’re all caught up, and we’re ready for whatever (Tuesday) brings.”
While a huge turnout is virtually guaranteed, it’s impossible to say how many Californians will cast ballots. More than 11 million ballots already have been returned in the state, 51% of the entire registration, but it’s unknown how many people will show up at the polls Tuesday to vote in person.
“The question is whether we’re going to see a surge of voter turnout on Tuesday,” said Dupuis of Alameda County. “That’s what everyone is asking.”
Trisha Thadani and John Wildermuth are San Francisco Chronicle staff writers. Email: tthadani@sfchronicle.com, jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @TrishaThadani, @jfwildermuth
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Bay Area election day’s big mystery: How many people will vote in person? - San Francisco Chronicle
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