- A tropical cyclone is expected to develop and intensify in the Arabian Sea this weekend.
- To be named Tauktae, it could scrape up the west Indian coast with heavy rain, winds and coastal flooding.
- Tauktae could then threaten Gujarat state and eastern Pakistan early next week.
A tropical cyclone is expected to develop and intensify in the Arabian Sea and could become one of the strongest to threaten parts of western India and eastern Pakistan in more than two decades.
Currently, an area of low pressure and scattered thunderstorms is slowly organizing in the southeastern Arabian Sea, a couple hundred miles west of southern India's Kerala coast. Meteorologists refer to this disturbance as Invest 92A, a designation for an area of interest that could develop into a tropical cyclone.
The disturbance is expected to develop into the equivalent of a tropical storm as soon as Friday or Saturday. Once it does, it will be called Cyclone Tauktae (pronounced TAW-tay).
Given an ample supply of warm – about 88 degrees Fahrenheit – deep ocean water, humid air and low wind shear, Tauktae could rapidly intensify into the equivalent of a formidable hurricane this weekend.
The future Tauktae is expected to track toward the north-northwest, generally parallel to the coast of western India, this weekend.
The key is how close to the coast Tauktae's center tracks.
For now, the majority of forecast model tracks suggest the center may stay just far enough off the coasts of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra states to spare the most severe impacts. But a few forecast model tracks keep Tauktae closer to the coast, if not an outright landfall.
Mumbai – home to 20 million in its metro area – may have a close brush with Tauktae late Sunday night or early Monday.
After that, Tauktae could eventually threaten India's Gujarat state and perhaps southeast Pakistan Monday into Tuesday.
It's still too soon to determine if Tauktae will strike one or both of those areas, but it could reach as far north as Pakistan's most populous city, Karachi, and be the strongest in these areas since a May 1999 cyclone made landfall near the India-Pakistan border.
Potential Path, Timing
(The area in the red-shaded area is where the majority of ensemble forecast model tracks suggest the cyclone's center may track and the general timing of that track. Note that impacts from a tropical cyclone typically occur some distance from the center.)Potential Impacts
Rainfall flooding
Even if Tauktae's center remains appreciably off western India's coast this weekend, bands of heavy rain are likely to wrap into southwest India, leading to a threat of rainfall flooding.
The best chance of heavy rainbands will be over Kerala and Karnataka states. If Tauktae's center tracks farther east and much closer to the coast, a higher threat of heavy rain will spread to Maharashtra state, including Mumbai.
Heavy rain will also accompany Tauktae into Gujarat state and Pakistan, but exactly where the heaviest rain will fall depends on the exact track of Tauktae, which remains uncertain.
Rainfall Forecast Through Wednesday
(Locally heavier amounts are possible where bands of rain train over the same area for a period of a few hours. Rainfall totals farther north are more uncertain and depend on the exact path of Tauktae.)Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge
Tauktae will generate swells that will ride up the coast of western India this weekend. This may lead to erosion at beaches and at least some coastal flooding, particularly at high tide.
Where more dangerous, life-threatening storm surge could occur remains uncertain and is dependent on the exact track. This would occur as the cyclone makes landfall generally ahead of and just to the east of its landfall location.
High Winds
Again, where Tauktae's most damaging winds occur depends on the track.
For now, the best chance of hurricane-force damaging winds might be in coastal Gujarat state into southeast Pakistan when Tauktae's core could make a landfall, but that may change.
At least tropical-storm-force winds are possible, however, along the rest of the western India coast even if Tauktae doesn't landfall or remains well offshore. That could lead to at least some tree damage and power outages.
Arabian Sea Cyclone History and a More Active Future?
Only one or two cyclones form in the Arabian Sea each year, on average, compared to 14 named storms in an average Atlantic Basin hurricane season.
May is one of the two seasonal cyclone peaks in the North Indian Ocean Basin, which includes the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. This is because wind shear tends to be low in the basin before the monsoon rains begin, allowing cyclones to form.
Most hurricane-strength Arabian Sea cyclones track either toward India's Gujarat state or migrate westward, sometimes making it to the Arabian Peninsula.
Strikes near Mumbai have been rare. According to NOAA's database, only five hurricane-strength cyclones have tracked within 70 miles of Mumbai in records dating to 1903.
In early June 2020, Cyclone Nisarga reached Category 1 intensity before it made landfall south of Mumbai, largely sparing the city.
Prior to that, 1948 was the last time another hurricane-strength cyclone tracked close to Mumbai.
Tracks of five hurricane-strength tropical cyclones within 70 miles of Mumbai, India, from 1903 to 2020.
(NOAA)That doesn't mean Mumbai won't ever be hit by an intense cyclone.
Computer simulations run by Columbia University suggest it's certainly plausible for the megacity to take a strike from a Category 3 or stronger cyclone. And that study doesn't consider climate change.
Cyclones in Pakistan are even rarer.
Only four cyclones of at least tropical storm strength have tracked within 70 miles of Karachi, home to about 14 million along the southeast coast of Pakistan, in records dating to 1902. A weakening Cyclone Phet was the last to do so as a tropical storm, then depression, in 2010.
But Pakistan's strongest cyclone was the aforementioned May 20, 1999, landfall southeast of Karachi near the India border at Category 3 intensity.
According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, an estimated 6,200 were killed in Pakistan from storm surge and heavy rain, despite warnings from the government.
Visible satellite image of the May 20, 1999, cyclone making landfall in far southeast Pakistan.
(NOAA)There have been 14 cyclones of at least Category 3 intensity in the Arabian Sea since 1998, including last November's Cyclone Gati, the first hurricane-strength cyclone to hit Somalia on record.
A 2020 study found that while the number of tropical cyclones hasn't increased globally, climate change has contributed to an increase in Arabian Sea cyclones, as well as in other basins, since 1980.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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May 14, 2021 at 04:17AM
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Cyclone Tauktae Expected to Develop in Arabian Sea; Potential Danger to India, Pakistan Into Next Week | The Weather Channel - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com - The Weather Channel
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