It’s been persistently dry across parts of western and northern Minnesota this year. That dryness has created elevated fire danger. I’m getting concerned about the fire threat up north as we head into a hot and potentially windy weather pattern through the upcoming weekend.
Fire danger running high
Wednesday’s fire danger update from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) shows large sections of western and northern Minnesota with high or very high fire danger.
Fire danger in Minnesota
Minnesota DNR
Precipitation in much of the north has been scant again over the past week. You can see on the seven-day precipitation map below that much of southern Minnesota has picked up one to two inches of rain in the past week. That’s great news for new crops in the field.
Precipitation total over the past seven days
Midwest Regional Climate Center
But take look up north. Many areas have seen under a quarter inch of rain in the past week.
Southern Minnesota has picked up above-average rainfall over the past week. But northern Minnesota is running less than 25 percent of average.
Precipitation departure from average over the past seven days
Midwest Regional Climate Center
You can see how the recently dry areas overlay many of the longer-term dry areas on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.
Minnesota Drought Monitor, May 25
U.S. Drought Monitor
Dry outlook into early next week
The forecast models suggest some rain possible Sunday into early next week as a cool front sags southward through Minnesota. But the European and Canadian models are stingy with rainfall overall for the next 10 days, with less than an inch in most locations.
European model (ECMWF) precipitation output for the next 10 days.
ECMWF via pivotal weather
It should be noted that NOAA’s GFS model favors potentially heavy rainfall during that same period in northern Minnesota, but right now it’s the outlier.
Take care with fire up north. And we’ll keep watching for rain.
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