There’s not one reason California’s covid-19 cases are soaring—there are many - MIT Technology Review

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It’s troubling, though not surprising, to see covid-19 cases spiking across the American South and Southwest, where public officials delayed lockdowns, rushed to reopen businesses, or refused to require people to wear masks.

But what’s the matter with California? The nation’s most populous state was the first to enact statewide shelter-in-place rules, took decisive steps to build up the recommended testing and case tracing capacity, and has hammered the public health message on social distancing and masks.

Yet new cases are rising sharply in pockets throughout the sprawling state, even as they’re flat or falling across much of the East Coast. Positive tests over the last seven-day period have risen 45%, regularly topping 5,000 a day, Governor Gavin Newsom said during a press conference on Monday. Hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions are both up around 40% over the past few weeks as well, threatening to overwhelm health-care systems.

In turn, Newsom has pressed Imperial County—the southernmost part of the state, where skyrocketing case loads have forced officials to move hundreds of patients to hospitals in neighboring areas—to fully reinstate stay-at-home orders. He’s also recommended or required that more than a dozen counties shut down their bars, including Los Angeles and Santa Clara, the home of Silicon Valley. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s mayor halted the city’s reopening plan on Friday.

So what’s driving the outbreaks in a state that supposedly did things right? Why weren’t its ambitious testing and contact tracing programs adequate to prevent the recent surge in cases?

“It’s not one thing, but four or five,” says George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at University of California, San Francisco, who is leading the university’s training program for the state’s contact tracing task force. “The state is so big—the population of California is larger than Canada—and there’s a lot of different things going on in different places.”

Health officials believe the state’s efforts to boost testing and rapidly track down infections is helping. California’s number of cases per capita—567 per 100,000—is well below the rates for states like Alabama, Arizona, or Florida. And Rutherford says about 85% of the people known to have interacted with positive patients are returning calls or answering questions from the state’s contact tracers, who are tasked with tracking down possible infections and encouraging people to quarantine or isolate themselves.

But clearly not enough people are strictly following these recommendations, and others, from public health officials—sometimes due to carelessness, and sometimes because of financial strains and other constraints.

Here are some of the main drivers at work:

Ethnic disparities

Throughout the state, Latinos make up by far the largest share of cases (56%) and deaths (42%), according to data from the California Department of Public Health. While Latinos make up 39% of the population, whites are a close second at 37% but represent only 17% of covid-19 cases.

These infections appear to be concentrated within low-income communities, where people are often essential workers who can’t do their jobs from home, can’t afford to call in sick and may live in crowded housing conditions, according to information from contact tracing programs as well as other research and reporting. Language, immigration status and financial issues can complicate efforts to successfully reach infected patients or their close contacts in these communities, and convince them to isolate themselves for extended periods.

Early results from a covid-19 screening project in San Francisco’s heavily Hispanic Mission neighborhood found that 95% of those who tested positive were “Hispanic or Latinx” (the difference is explained here). And 90% of infected patients said they couldn’t work from home.

People are becoming cavalier

Another major factor is that people are ignoring safety practices, according to a state breakdown of counties experiencing rising cases. As regions relax stay-at-home rules, families, friends, and strangers are increasingly gathering in homes, bars, restaurants, and other venues. Too often, they’re not wearing masks or staying far enough away from each other, said Mark Ghaly, secretary of California’s Health and Human Services Agency, during the Monday press conference.

Los Angeles County has become the nation’s largest epicenter of the disease, with nearly 98,000 confirmed cases, according to Johns Hopkins University’s coronavirus tracking map.

The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health announced on Sunday that it would heed Newsom’s directive to shut down bars, noting that the region’s sharp increase in cases and hospitalizations directly coincides with the reopening of businesses a few weeks earlier. Those include breweries, pubs, wineries, and other venues “where people remove their face covering to drink while they may be socializing with people not in their households,” the statement read.

“I implore that our residents and businesses follow the public health directives that will keep us healthy, safe, and on the pathway to recovery,” said Barbara Ferrer, the county’s director of public health. “Otherwise, we are quickly moving toward overwhelming our health-care system and seeing even more devastating illness and death.”

Explosions in prison cases

More than 2,500 state and federal prison inmates throughout California are infected with the coronavirus. More than 1,000 prisoners and staff members tested positive in San Quentin State Prison alone during the last few weeks, in an outbreak linked to the transfer of inmates from the California Institution for Men in Chino, where there are more than 500 active cases.

The spillover of patients into local hospitals has forced Marin County, where San Quentin is based, to pause its plans to reopen gyms, hotels, and other businesses.

An influx of cases from elsewhere

A variety of other factors are driving higher case counts, including increasingly widespread testing across the state (which totaled nearly 106,000 on Sunday), continuing outbreaks in nursing homes in several counties, and patients from outside California crowding into counties with better testing and treatment.

Part of what’s driving the soaring case loads in Imperial County is the influx of positive patients from Mexico. State officials say they’re primarily US citizens, hundreds of thousands of whom live in neighboring Baja, crossing back in search of superior health care.

The county has by far the state’s highest case numbers on a per capita basis, 3,414 per 100,000, as well as a positivity rate for tests that’s more than four times the state average.

The different drivers demand different interventions, health experts say. Officials need to make extra efforts to communicate with low-income Latino patients and provide money, food, housing, or other services to help them isolate while they’re infectious. (San Francisco has some programs like this in place, but clearly more are needed throughout the state.) Prison systems need to keep infected inmates isolated, and ensure that they’re no longer spreading the disease across facilities. And nursing homes should test patients and workers more often, and step in more rapidly at the earliest signs of an outbreak.

But pretty much all of this has been known from the start. Californians need to recognize that the dangers haven’t passed, even as regions relax certain rules. Everyone still has to maintain their distance from others, vigorously wash their hands, and abide by the one public health decree that may help the most.

“Wear masks,” UCSF’s Rutherford says.

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A delusional, dangerous Trump is harming America's security - CNN

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None of this can possibly come as a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to Trump's tenure, or even anyone who has listened to the president speak. But it is more disturbing evidence that this president, along with his enablers in the White House and the Republican Party, poses a direct threat to American interests and our country's future.

Drawing on multiple sources who have heard the president's conversations with foreign leaders, Bernstein paints a picture of an impulsive and delusional bully, a man so out of his depth and unhinged from reality that he spends phone calls with autocratic leaders like Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan or Russia's Vladimir Putin exaggerating his own accomplishments and allowing those smarter than he to gain strategic advantage.

By contrast, he is condescending and bullying to America's allies, particularly those nations led (at the time of these calls) by women, like Great Britain's Theresa May and Germany's Angela Merkel. He has, Bernstein's sources assert, dimmed America's power while emboldening and empowering Russia. He's so happy to speak with Erdogan that Trump even takes the Turkish strongman's calls from the golf course.

According to Bernstein's sources, it was the conversations with Erdogan, a serial human rights abuser who quashes dissent and fair-minded reporting on his regime, that shaped Trump's decision-making in Syria -- "including the President's directive to pull US forces out of the country, which then allowed Turkey to attack Kurds who had helped the US fight ISIS and weakened NATO's role in the conflict," Bernstein writes.

The question is, what now? While it's jarring to see all of these damning claims compiled in such a deeply sourced exposé, the claims themselves are mostly things we've heard before, or could have surmised based on the president's public behavior (do we really think that he's more professional, coherent, and thoughtful in private than in planned press conferences and pre-written speeches?).

During the 2016 election, we were in fact privy to one particularly memorable private chat between Trump and Billy Bush, wherein the now-president bragged about grabbing women by their genitals. He has been accused of sexual harassment and assault by over a dozen women. He has appointed fewer women than any president in the previous decade (and possibly fewer than any president in 20 years). Is anyone surprised that he aggressively mistreats female heads of state?

We've all seen the president take the podium and lie to the press and the public. We've seen him invent claims about the coronavirus pandemic seemingly on the spot, putting public health and American lives at risk. We've seen him fire those who investigate his alleged bad acts. It does not take great imagination, or anything other than looking honestly at what is in front of your face, to see that this is a man dangerously unfit for the office he occupies.

And yet we've seen his support among his base and GOP leadership go largely unchanged. Few current or former members of the administration have sounded the alarm on what a liability this president truly is, perhaps because they're craven and, like John Bolton, apparently more interested in cashing in on a tell-all book than walking the country back from the brink. Or perhaps they look at congressional Republicans and conclude that all of this information is already obvious, and the president's party has chosen to defend a clearly damaged and harmful man.

According to Bernstein, "One person familiar with almost all the conversations with the leaders of Russia, Turkey, Canada, Australia and western Europe described the calls cumulatively as 'abominations' so grievous to US national security interests that if members of Congress heard from witnesses to the actual conversations or read the texts and contemporaneous notes, even many senior Republican members would no longer be able to retain confidence in the President." But why in the world would this be the conclusion, knowing what we do about ongoing Republican support for Trump even after impeachment hearings brought to the fore the president's incompetence and choice to put self before country?

The sources in Bernstein's story have a stark choice in front of them: Continue to prop up a man who they know threatens the nation, or stand up for the future of this country and put their name and face behind the truth. If these high-level public servants really believe that "even many senior Republican members would no longer be able to retain confidence in the President" if they knew the truth, then surely Republicans in Congress -- and the rest of the country -- deserve to know just that.

There is an election in four months. American voters, and our elected officials, must know the full story of this president's first term. And we need to hear it not from cowardly anonymous sources, but from the men and women who have witnessed these abominations themselves. If those men and women are the patriots they believe themselves to be, they'll speak out, and they'd do it before November.

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Sports Are Returning. Virus Cases Are Rising. How Many Is Too Many? - The New York Times

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It wasn’t supposed to happen this way.

The return of major sports in the United States from their coronavirus-caused breaks was supposed to coincide with flattened curves and reduced concerns about infection and death rates and hospitalizations.

Instead, cases are skyrocketing, and concerns are rising with them. The worry is perhaps most profound in Florida, the home of two Major League baseball teams and the choice location for the “bubbles” of the N.B.A., Major League Soccer and the W.N.B.A., and in Texas, home to two M.L.B. teams and the planned site of at least 60 baseball games in the coming months.

The leagues say their return-to-play protocols will minimize the chances of infection for both athletes and team staff members. But experts in infectious diseases say that while extensive planning and exhaustive manuals — the N.B.A. and M.L.B.’s guides are both 113 pages — offer plenty of guidance on how to eat and train and wash, some infections are inevitable, and the leagues don’t have a clear answer to how much is too much.

The challenge for those still plotting a return, experts say, is that much is ultimately beyond the control of any league, team or executive, all of whom are at the mercy of the rising national infection rates — and those in their home cities.

“I’m less optimistic about sports coming back as time goes on,” said Melissa Nolan, an epidemiologist at the University of South Carolina. “It’s hard to justify a resumption of sports when we are still struggling to open up basic services.”

In March, all it took was a single positive test to shut down the N.B.A. What will it take now? And will the steady drip of individual players deciding not to play soon turn into a torrent?

If the past 10 days are any indication, this is all about to get more complicated. M.L.B. teams will be hopscotching the country by the end of July, and already players are taking a pass. Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals said Monday that he would opt out of the season. His teammate Joe Ross, his former teammate Ian Desmond, now with Colorado, and Mike Leake of the Arizona Diamondbacks have also said they will not play.

Dodger Stadium’s parking lot is currently serving as a coronavirus testing site.Credit...Bryan Denton for The New York Times

The N.B.A. announced over the weekend that 16 of its players had tested positive in its first round of samples, and several stars already have said that they will stay home when the league restarts in late July. M.L.S., which has had 24 positive tests, could resume its season next week without its reigning most valuable player.

At the PGA Tour’s Travelers Championship last week, several players withdrew after either they or their caddies had tested positive for the coronavirus. And while the National Women’s Soccer League’s monthlong tournament is underway in Utah, it began without an entire team, the Orlando Pride, which had to withdraw after six players and four team staff members tested positive during its preparations.

Several European soccer leagues have been able to restart their seasons, even those in Italy and Spain, which were being ravaged by the disease only a few months ago. The difference between Europe, and especially Germany, where the Bundesliga has been back in action for more than a month, and the United States is that those countries were far more effective in driving down infection rates.

“People want to know why we haven’t been able to have sports back sooner,” said Zachary Binney, a sports epidemiologist at Emory University in Atlanta. “It’s because we don’t have the virus under control.”

The result is a situation that appears to become more uncertain each day. “We are bringing sports back not without fingers crossed and pinning our hopes on the idea that things will go OK,” said Neel Gandhi, a colleague of Binney’s at Emory’s School of Public Health. “But the past week has shown we are still very vulnerable. We might be worse than we were a month or two ago.”

League officials have acknowledged that they are aware not all of their players are going to be comfortable with their plans to return to competition. Some athletes have expressed concerns about their own health, or that of a family member. Others wonder how much risk the virus poses to their long-term health.

The N.W.S.L.’s season resumed on Saturday with social justice protests before two games, but without three of the league’s biggest stars.Credit...Alex Goodlett/Getty Images

The N.F.L. and its players’ union are continuing to negotiate all of these issues, and those discussions have included not only opt-out provisions but also — notably — a shutdown threshold, though nothing has been finalized. Unlike the N.B.A. and other leagues that are trying to complete or resume seasons interrupted by the pandemic, the N.F.L. still has some time.

Football players don’t report to training camp until the end of July in a normal year; by then, there should be some initial lessons from what other leagues have gone through, including those that have restarted or plan to in restricted environments — so-called “bubbles” — and those, like baseball, that will not.

The Coronavirus Outbreak

• Frequently Asked Questions and Advice

  Updated June 30, 2020

  • What are the symptoms of coronavirus?

    Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.

  • What’s the best material for a mask?

    Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.

  • Is it harder to exercise while wearing a mask?

    A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.

  • I’ve heard about a treatment called dexamethasone. Does it work?

    The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.

  • What is pandemic paid leave?

    The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.

  • Does asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 happen?

    So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.

  • What’s the risk of catching coronavirus from a surface?

    Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.

  • How does blood type influence coronavirus?

    A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.

  • How many people have lost their jobs due to coronavirus in the U.S.?

    The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.

  • How can I protect myself while flying?

    If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)

  • What should I do if I feel sick?

    If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.

---

The early reviews from inside the M.L.S. bubble have been positive. Teams began arriving in Orlando, Fla., last week. The San Jose Earthquakes were first because they had not been able to practice as a full squad in the team’s home market.

Tommy Thompson, a San Jose defender, said during a video conference Friday that players were largely staying in their rooms when they were away from the field. There, he said, they read, watch movies or play video games, and then gather for team meals inside the Disney resort the league has taken over for the next month. For the moment, players said, everyone is aware of the potential consequences of venturing outside the restricted areas under the league’s control.

“I feel as safe as I could possibly be,” said Chris Mueller, a forward for Orlando City S.C. “I feel safer here than I was at home.”

Still, the point at which a surge in infections on any team, or league, crosses some yet-to-be established coronavirus red line is still unclear.

Binney said if three or four players on a team test positive, the leagues should view it as a sign of an outbreak and shut down the team for a period of time. But how many teams have to be shut down for a league to call off its season isn’t clear.

“If you don’t set a red line you are giving yourself an excuse, when a lot of money on the line, to push it farther than you should,” he said.

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Coronavirus: Last call for many bars as cases spike - Los Angeles Times

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As coronavirus cases rocket upward in many parts of the state, bars across California — many of which only recently reopened — are being forced to again announce last call.

The taps will tighten Tuesday in Riverside County under a new health order.

“People don’t social distance well after a couple drinks, and it’s one of the hardest environments to trace contacts in,” Public Health Officer Dr. Cameron Kaiser said in announcing the decision Monday. “My hope is that this will be only temporary and further closures won’t be needed, but it all depends on what every one of us as a county do to slow more spread.”

The county had allowed bars to reopen June 12. However, Riverside, like many areas of California and the country at large, has seen a worrying spike in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in recent weeks — forcing officials to slow down or walk back plans to reopen businesses that have been closed during the pandemic.

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Restaurants, breweries and pubs that offer dine-in services can still serve alcoholic drinks, but only as part of a meal, county officials said.

Riverside was one of eight counties that the state recently recommended issue local health orders closing bars. The others were Contra Costa, Santa Clara, Sacramento, San Bernardino, Ventura, Santa Barbara and Stanislaus.

Others weren’t given the choice. On Sunday, Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered seven counties — Los Angeles, Fresno, Kern, San Joaquin, Tulare, Kings and Imperial — to close bars, breweries and pubs that sell alcoholic drinks without serving food at the same time.

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“COVID-19 is still circulating in California, and in some parts of the state, growing stronger,” Newsom said in a written statement. “That’s why it is critical we take this step to limit the spread of the virus in the counties that are seeing the biggest increases.”

In light of the state’s recommendation, Sacramento County has amended its public health order “to take bars off of the list of allowable activities,” officials said in a statement. That revised order went into effect Monday.

Santa Barbara County had done the same. The order there stipulates that brewpubs, breweries, bars and pubs should close starting Wednesday unless they also offer dine-in meals. However, wineries and tasting rooms can remain open.

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“This action, particularly in anticipation of the holiday weekend, is a proactive measure to curb the spread of COVID-19 locally,” said County Health Officer Dr. Henning Ansorg. “We have to keep each other safe during this time.”

San Bernardino County officials said Monday that they were examining the matter.

“This renewed growth in infections not only increases the risk of people getting sick and even dying, but also threatens our ability to continue reopening our economy,” Board of Supervisors Chairman Curt Hagman said. “It is critical that you continue practicing social distancing and wearing a mask when you’re around other people.”

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Officials in Ventura County said they are already in line with the guidance, and bars were not open in four other named counties — Contra Costa, Santa Clara, San Joaquin and Imperial — at the time of the state’s announcement.

“You are much more likely to run into someone who has no symptoms but is positive if you gather with others,” Ventura County Public Health Officer Dr. Robert Levin said. “It’s important that we collectively work together to stop the spread so that lives can be saved, and businesses can remain open.”

Other areas that were not listed by the state, including San Diego County, have also taken action to close some alcohol-serving establishments in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

Michelle Steel, chairwoman of the Orange County Board of Supervisors, said Tuesday that the health officer “is considering the issuance of health orders to close bars in Orange County if, in his medical opinion, it is appropriate to do so.”

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“Throughout our pandemic response, and in our phased reopening, we have consistently stated that we would closely monitor the data and correct course as needed,” she said. “I, and my colleagues on the Orange County Board of Supervisors, remain dedicated to protecting the health and safety of our residents.”

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Many small business owners worry a second shutdown would be devastating - CNN

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But now they face even more hurdles in their bid to survive. The Paycheck Protection Program -- a major lifeline for many -- will stop issuing new loans after Tuesday. And the closure comes just as coronavirus cases are spiking in dozens of states, calling into question whether state and local authorities will hit the brakes on the economy again.

As it is, pulling in customers during multiple "phases" of reopening has been challenging. Businesses have had to constantly update their marketing for which services they're providing -- Delivery? Curbside pickup? In-person shopping? Outdoor dining only? -- and the new health rules that go along with those.

"It's an extra PR nightmare," said Ann Leadbetter, who owns Meriwether Cider in Boise, Idaho, with her husband and two adult daughters. Her business includes a tap room and a cider house from which they sell their own hard ciders.

But small business owners say the biggest ongoing hurdle is the financial uncertainty that clouds everything.

No idea when they'll be able to operate 'quasi-normally'

Leadbetter said she is grateful for the PPP loan she received because it helped her family stay in business. And she is grateful that the federal CARES Act relieved business owners of the obligation to make payments on their other Small Business Administration loans for six months. Her family had taken out two when they started their company. But they'll need to start paying again in September.

"We, like many businesses, thought by the time the PPP funds ran out and the loan payments were due again, we'd be out of the woods and able to operate quasi-normally. Now, as cases are spiking and predicted to spike even more in the fall, this is no longer the case. And I'm getting spooked about what will happen next. If we have to go into full lockdown again, all bets are off," Leadbetter said.

'No one has a working plan'

Cliff Hodges, founder of California-based Adventure Out LLC, which provides lessons and retreats in surfing, rock climbing, mountain biking and other outdoor adventures, has been having a survivalist adventure of his own since March, when he had to temporarily shut operations down.

The majority of his revenue is generated between May and October, but the bookings for his high season come in March and April. As a result, Hodges said, "Our regular bookings are down. And our corporate bookings are gone."

Having reopened this month, the company is seeing a spike in demand because people want to get outside after so many months at home. So Hodges is actually trying to hire a few more staff -- to add to the majority of employees he was still paying once he received his PPP loan.

But coronavirus cases in California are also spiking, so it's unclear what's ahead -- whether potential customers will stay away or whether counties in which Adventure Out operates will again issue stay-at-home orders. "No one has a working plan for this," Hodges said.

Besides losing more money, Hodges worries he might get a bill from the state to replenish his company's unemployment insurance reserve account to help cover some of the unemployment benefits staffers received after being laid off. While the federal government under the CARES Act subsidized many of those extended benefits, it's up to individual states to determine whether employers will be on the hook for additional payments. Hodges hasn't been able to get clear guidance on how California will rule. And CNN Business has not yet heard back on the matter from the state's employment development agency.

In the meantime he hasn't been paying himself, noting that payroll, rent and utilities top his priority list. "I don't see a near-term future where I get paid. I'll be shocked if I'm able to pay myself in 2020."

'A series of impossible questions'

Chris Morgan and Gerald Addison were scheduled to open their new restaurant Bammy's in Washington, DC, by the end of March. That didn't happen. They made the call not to open a few days before the DC government banned in-person dining.

But they decided to bring on a smaller-than-expected staff to do takeout starting in mid-May. A few days later, they were allowed to start offering patio service. And, as of this week, indoor dining is now permitted. But they said they're not yet comfortable doing that for the safety of their staff and customers.

Indeed, restaurant and other business owners are facing "a series of impossible questions" as coronavirus cases surge in so many places, Addison said. "It's on everyone 's mind. It's hard to ask someone to come back off of unemployment and then a week later for things to shut down again."

While they didn't qualify for a PPP loan because they weren't open for business earlier in the year, they have been taking the new employee retention credit, which offers them a quarterly tax credit equal to half the wages they are paying staff. Total credits combined can't exceed $10,000. "It works out well if you're trying to test the waters and don't have a full staff yet," Morgan said.

They're currently paying five employees, but not themselves or their spouses. And having been in the restaurant industry for years, they know how to run lean.

One of their big financial concerns going forward is rent. They took over a pre-existing lease with six years left. "We're trying to figure out a way forward so [the landlord] understands we're doing our best to pay what we can," Morgan said.

What's needed next?

To thrive, small businesses need customers willing to spend and the confidence to leave their homes.

With historically high unemployment rates and a persistent, poorly managed public health crisis, both may be a ways off.

Many lawmakers' appetite to do yet another massive stimulus package is waning. But they may pass a more "targeted" one this summer.

There has been a push by small business advocates to automatically forgive PPP loans under $150,000. And some are even asking for business owners to be allowed to get a second PPP loan since the program still had more than $130 billion in remaining funds as of this weekend.

But many small business owners would rather avoid more loans, even if there's a chance they could be forgiven eventually.

To the extent there is more financial assistance, Hodges hopes it comes in the form of a grant. "It's absurd and terrifying to take out a loan when you're running negative. It took me the first 10 years just to pay off my original loans. I'd rather just quit."

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Why are so many people lighting off fireworks? - The Conversation US

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The number of fireworks being lit off at night is out of control this year.

While people often light off fireworks close to the Fourth of July, this year fireworks have been lit in large numbers starting weeks earlier. New York City had a 4,000% increase in fireworks complaints in the first two weeks of June compared with last year. This prompted Mayor Bill de Blasio to vow a crackdown on illegal fireworks.

Complaints about fireworks are not confined to just New York City, but in cities across the country like San Francisco, Denver, Harrisburg, Albuquerque, Providence and many other places. This has led to a rise in conspiracy theories, including one that the nightly noise is an elaborate government plot to create confusion in neighborhoods.

I am an economist who has spoken and written about fireworks for years. After hearing a constant barrage nightly for weeks, I began wondering why so many people are lighting off fireworks this year.

It isn’t economics

There are two possible economic reasons behind an increase in fireworks usage: falling prices or increased supply. However, neither of these is the culprit behind the increase in fireworks usage this year.

The vast majority of the fireworks individuals shoot off in the U.S. are manufactured overseas, mainly in China. Each shipment of fireworks brought into the U.S. includes a detailed invoice that shows the quantity and price the importer paid.

Price data for the first four months of 2020 show importers paid an average of US$2.63 per kilogram for fireworks from China. A year earlier, importers paid an average of $2.60 per kilogram. This means prices rose slightly from 2019 to 2020, eliminating the falling price argument.

Increased supply is also not the reason. In a typical year there are two holidays with widespread firework usage; New Year’s Eve and the Fourth of July.

Deliveries in 2020 are an exception to this pattern. Because of the coronavirus, the U.S. imported very few fireworks in March. During the first four months of 2020 the U.S. imported 9 million kilograms of fireworks from China. While this seems like a large number, it is one-third less than a year earlier.

Fireworks are much more common around holidays like New Year’s Eve. Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Nor is it legal reform

Another potential reason could be changes in laws.

Most major dense cities like New York, Chicago and San Francisco ban fireworks.

However, if neighboring jurisdictions have loosened their rules, then people can easily drive outside the city to purchase fireworks.

There has been a steady reduction in state prohibitions against individuals using fireworks. Today only one state, Massachusetts, completely prohibits individuals from owning and using any type of fireworks. All the rest allow them in some form.

However, the most recent two states to allow consumers to shoot off fireworks are New Jersey in 2017 and Delaware in 2018. Since most states relaxed prohibitions against fireworks more than two years ago, recent rule changes also cannot be behind the increase.

The most likely culprit

To find the real reason, it helps to consider that millions of Americans have been locked down in their homes and apartments for months. As an employee at a fireworks store in Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania, put it, “People are bored. They just want to blow stuff up.”

While this argument is understandable, I think the most likely reason is even simpler. And it has a lot to do with opportunity costs, something economists spend a lot of time thinking about.

Opportunity costs put a dollar value on what else a person could do with their time. For example, before the pandemic, I had many choices at night. I could work, go out with friends, watch television or see a movie in the theater.

By shutting down restaurants, theaters, bars and other venues, COVID-19 has dramatically reduced my choices.

The pandemic has also thrown millions out of work. Many people who would normally be working at night are not. This means the opportunity cost for using fireworks is exceptionally low compared with before, since there are so few opportunities to socialize, be entertained or work.

Beyond lower opportunity costs for fireworks users, there are many unemployed people who are now looking for opportunities to earn money. Buying fireworks in a rural area like northern Pennsylvania and selling them at higher prices in a city that bans their sale, such as New York City, can be easy and profitable.

So few arrests are made for fireworks that the FBI, which tracks problems like moonshining and polygamy on its detailed list of offenses, does not give it a category.

Idle hands

Fireworks are dangerous. While few people die each year from using them, the latest figures for 2019 show that fireworks hurt about 10,000 people per year in the U.S.

However, massive unemployment caused by COVID-19 is also dangerous.

There is an old quote that idle hands lead to mischief. In this case, idle people lead to large amounts of illegal firework usage.

My belief is that once the millions of unemployed people in the U.S. go back to work, the number of illegal fireworks shot off will rapidly decrease and will once again be limited to the times around New Year’s Eve and the Fourth of July.

[Deep knowledge, daily. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.]

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NFLPA president J.C. Tretter suggests many players are at a 'higher risk' for COVID-19 - CBS Sports

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All signs point to the NFL pressing forward with its 2020 season amid the COVID-19 pandemic, even though nearly one-third of all teams are reportedly already dealing with positive coronavirus cases. And while some players have publicly said they're ready to risk their health to play games this season, NFL Players Association president J.C. Tretter has cautioned against a hurried return to the field, suggesting in an open letter Tuesday that many players are actually at a higher risk for damage from COVID-19.

"We are not invincible," the Cleveland Browns offensive lineman wrote, "and as recent reports have shown, we certainly aren't immune to this virus. Underlying conditions like high BMI, asthma and sleep apnea are all associated with a higher risk of developing severe symptoms and complications when infected with COVID-19. Those conditions are widespread across the league.

"NFL players are humans -- some with immuno-compromised family members or live-in elderly parents," Tretter continued. "Trust me: we want to play football. But as a union, our most important job is keep our players safe and alive. The NFLPA will fight for our most at-risk players and their families."

Tretter's remarks echo those of New Orleans Saints safety Malcolm Jenkins, who recently said he wouldn't necessarily feel comfortable returning to the field until the risk is closer to being eliminated -- not only for the sake of his own health but for that of his friends and family.

"It is the responsibility of the employer to provide a safe work environment," Tretter added in his Tuesday letter. "I encourage all workers to hold their employers accountable to high standards. More so than any other sport, the game of football is the perfect storm for virus transmission. There are protections, both short and long term, that must be agreed upon before we can safely return to work."

In the end, Tretter indicated, football may very well happen in 2020. But it almost assuredly won't happen until the NFL and NFLPA come to terms on lots more protocol about operating this season.

"I do not believe conversations about returning to work should be a race to the lowest common denominator among employees across different professions in different industries," he said. "We are all workers fighting for the same things: better pay, better benefits and better work rules. Our individual workplaces may be different, but we should support our fellow workers in pursuing gains instead of shaming them to come back to the pack. No worker should be complacent with their rights because they have what others outside their business deem 'good enough.' Instead of racing to the bottom, let's push each other to the top."

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Many of us near 90° each through the 4th of July; limited storm chances - WSLS 10

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ROANOKE, Va. – Areas like Roanoke, Lynchburg and Southside have only hit 90° five to seven times so far this year. Compare that to last year’s 10-15 times at this point, and it feels like we’re a little behind. We’ll make up some ground on that throughout the holiday weekend.

Along with that, humidity and a front nearby comes the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. We’ll start you out with Tuesday.

With a front stalled just south of here, the better chance for thunderstorms will be along and south of US 460 between 12 and 6 p.m.

FutureTracker - 4 p.m. Tuesday

Even as get closer to sunset, a few slow-moving thunderstorms will be possible. These will slowly fizzle out, as we lose the heat of the day and the storm cools the air around itself.

FutureTracker - 9 p.m. Tuesday

By Wednesday, the front is well south of here. However, we’ll still be plenty warm and humid. Just like clockwork, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop after about 12 p.m.

FutureTracker - 1 p.m. Wednesday

As the day goes on, high pressure to the north will continue to push our front farther south. This will reduce storm chances from Wednesday night through Friday. Still, we’ll keep it seasonably hot and humid through the rest of the week.

FutureTracker - 8 p.m. Wednesday

This paves the way for a pretty optimistic 4th of July forecast. The storm track remains to our south, meaning that anything significant is unlikely. We still can’t rule out a few late day pop-up storms, but let’s be honest...that’s pretty typical anyway.

What We're Tracking - Independence Day 2020

Temperatures, meanwhile, will be running quite toasty again. For now, we expect highs around 87-93° area-wide. Some pieces of forecast data are indicating we could be even a touch hotter than that. We won’t jump the gun this far out, but if this hotter trend becomes more consistent in the data - we’ll make necessary changes to our forecast.

4th of July forecast - 2020

The storm track rises north later in the weekend into early next week, indicating that storm chances will return to the forecast by then.

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After Chesapeake’s Bankruptcy, These Oil-and-Gas Companies Could be in Danger - Barron's

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Bond investors shouldn’t be too surprised by Chesapeake Energy’s bankruptcy.

The oil and gas producer filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in a South Texas court on Sunday, after the company and its creditors agreed on the outlines of a restructuring plan that would eliminate $7 billion of debt. Chesapeake (ticker: CHK) plans to sell $600 million of new shares to a group of fund managers as part of that deal; its market capitalization was $116 million as of June 26, so the share sale will sharply devalue current shareholders’ stakes in the company. The stock was halted on Monday, though the company said it believes that its shares will continue to trade through the process.

Bond markets were flashing warning signals about Chesapeake long before the coronavirus pandemic put pressure on oil and gas producers and created turbulence in futures markets. Chesapeake’s bond yields have been trading at distressed levels—yielding more than 10 percentage points higher than Treasuries—since August 2019.

Some of the energy price pressure has lifted thanks to oil’s rebound to around $40 per barrel. Yet many oil-and-gas companies still face high borrowing costs and depressed share prices.

Excluding Chesapeake, about one-third of the face value of energy bonds in the ICE BofA High Yield Bond index are trading at distressed levels. That makes up about 2.8% of the index itself.

A list of 10 distressed and not-quite-distressed oil-and-gas companies follows:

• Noble (NE): Wall Street equity analysts usually aren’t a very pessimistic bunch. That’s why it is notable that Jacob Lundberg from Credit Suisse told Barron’s in May that he thinks Noble, an offshore driller, will probably need to restructure its debt within the next six months. Noble’s shares have declined 73% so far this year, and its long-term bonds are trading at two to three cents on the dollar.

•Valaris (VAL): Valaris is another offshore driller that Lundberg says could go through a restructuring in the second half of this year. Many of its bonds are trading around or below 10 cents on the dollar, and its stock is down 89% year to date.

• Oasis Petroleum (OAS): This oil exploration and production company warned investors about its ability to continue as a going concern in its first-quarter earnings report. Oasis has cut capital spending far enough that it could survive 2020, but it will be a tall order to stay in compliance with its debt contracts until the end of this year, says independent credit-research firm CreditSights. Its stock is down 76% this year and its bond maturing in May 2026 is trading at 17 cents on the dollar.

• Forum Energy Technologies (FET): This drilling equipment maker bought back one tranche of its bonds at a steep discount—a move that some ratings firms call a selective default. While Forum has already completed the debt exchange, S&P Ratings said June 18 that the company could go through another exchange or a restructuring within the next six months. Its stock is down 67% this year and its 2021 bonds trade at 41 cents to the dollar.

• Denbury Resources (DNR): About 98% of the reserves held by this Texas-based exploration and production company are oil, which was hit harder than natural gas during the March and April selloff. Most important, at last check the company had about $636 million of debt maturing next year. That means it “is questionable whether the company can achieve its debt restructuring goals without a chapter 11 filing,” says credit-research firm Gimme Credit. Its stock is down 76% year to date and its bonds are trading at 39 cents on the dollar.

• Callon Petroleum (CPE): This Texas oil exploration and production company in May terminated a plan to exchange debt for new bonds valued at about 40% of par value, a steep discount. If it had gone through with the plan, that would have constituted a default, says S&P Ratings. The credit-ratings firm upgraded Callon after news that it had abandoned the plan. But Callon’s bank lenders have tightened up on its credit. While the company said it would try to sell non-core assets to raise cash, S&P said the effort “could be difficult in current market conditions.” The stock is down 76% so far in 2020.

• Transocean (RIG): This driller and oilfield services company was named by Credit Suisse’s Lundberg as a somewhat better bet than its peers Noble and Valaris. Even so, S&P Ratings downgraded Transocean to a rating eight tiers below investment grade in April because of the challenges in the broader market. S&P’s analysts said that “further downgrades are possible in the future because of Transocean’s “unsustainable leverage, heavy debt burden, and the increasing likelihood of a distressed exchange or restructuring.” Its stock is down 74% this year.

• Range Resources (RRC): Not all of Range Resources ’ bonds are trading with distressed-level yields: Its 2022 bonds yield 9.8 percentage points more than Treasuries. That could be because the oil and gas producer is making a concerted effort to reduce debt, as executives said in the company’s May 1 earnings call. But it has a lot of ground to cover; as of early April it had $720 million of debt maturing this year and next, Moody’s pointed out. Analysts at CreditSights said in May that the company would have to sell assets to meet its debt-reduction goals, but much like Callon, it could struggle to find buyers in current market conditions. Nevertheless, its stock is up 14% year to date.

The following companies’ bonds are rated investment grade but yield at least seven percentage points more than Treasuries—wider spreads than about 78% of the high yield market. That implies they face risk of downgrades or other trouble:

• Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN): Oil companies’ capital-spending cuts are expected to hit the revenues of offshore drillers and U.S. onshore drillers such as Patterson-UTI. The company has a high-yield rating from S&P, and its investment-grade rating from Moody’s is just two tiers above junk and comes with a negative outlook. On the bright side, Patterson doesn’t have any large debt maturities until 2022, S&P says. The stock is down 67% this year, and its 2029 bonds yield 8.5 percentage points more than Treasuries.

• Ovintiv (OVV): This North American oil and gas exploration and production company has made it onto S&P Ratings’ list of “potential fallen angels,” or investment-grade companies that could be downgraded to junk, alongside Patterson-UTI. The company’s bonds yield 7.1 to 8.2 percentage points more than Treasuries, and the stock is down 60% this year.

Write to Alexandra Scaggs at alexandra.scaggs@barrons.com

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