Change has been a constant for the Broncos over the last four years. New quarterbacks. New play-callers. New philosophies. New skill position players.
And the same results.
The Broncos enter Sunday’s game against Miami with a 3-6 record. Again.
They are approaching December with a wheezing offense. Again.
And the solutions are equal parts elusive (help isn’t on the way) and unrealistic (injured players won’t miraculously heal to lead a resuscitation effort). Again.
Minus an improbable turnaround, the Broncos’ playoff drought will stretch to five years. And this 3-6 start offensively has similarities to the previous three seasons:
2017: 20th in yards (328.6) and 24th in scoring (18.4).
2018: 11th in yards (377.1) and 19th in scoring (22.8).
2019: 27th in yards (311.4) and 28th in scoring (16.6).
This year: 26th in yards (334.0) and 28th in scoring (20.7).
So what needs to be addressed (besides everything)? Here are four issues:
Early-down passing game
Why it’s an issue: Part of the Broncos’ overall first-down struggles (4.71 yards per snap, second-worst in the league) is their passing game.
According to Stats, Inc., the Broncos have gained four or more yards on only 43.4% of their first-down pass plays (last in the NFL).
How to fix it: Particularly early in the game, give quarterback Drew Lock some first-and-10 throws that are high percentage, like a screen or a quick slant against the right coverage and sprinkle in a called deep shot.
Against the Chargers, Lock was 3-of-7 passing for 23 yards on first down in quarters 1-3 and 8-of-8 for 75 yards (two touchdowns) in the comeback fourth quarter.
At Atlanta, he was 3-of-9 for 37 yards in the first three quarters.
At Las Vegas, he was 10-of-19 for 106 yards (one interception) in the entire game.
A way to kick-start/sustain drives could be more first-and-10 passes to set up manageable second-down opportunities. The Broncos are last in the NFL in yards needed on second down (8.52).
Better on third-and-medium
Why it’s an issue: The Broncos’ offense, as it is currently constructed, will face more third-and-medium and third-and-long plays.
The Broncos are at 61.5% on third-and-short (three of fewer yards, 16-of-26), 48.6% on third-and-medium (4-7 yards, 18-of-37) and 22% on third-and-long (eight or more yards, 13-of-59).
How to fix it: More third-down plays when they need three yards rather than 6-7 yards.
“The shorter third downs, I think we’ve been very, very good,” offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur said last week. “Some of the medium third downs, we have to get better, obviously.”
On third-and-4 this year, the Broncos are 2-of-10 (20%). The screen game continues to be a rumor and getting into a manageable third down could put that option in play.
Sending Fant downfield
Why it’s an issue: Tight end Noah Fant leads the Broncos with 35 catches and is second in targets (53) and yards (367) and tied for second in touchdown receptions (two). But the stretch-the-field-down-the-seam plays to Fant haven’t materialized.
Out of his targets, only 11 have traveled at least 10 “air” yards and only three of those were completions — a 20-yard touchdown and 22-yard catch at Pittsburgh in Week 2, and a 24-yard catch against Kansas City in Week 7.
How to fix it: Get Fant back to as close as 100% as possible. He missed the Week 6 New England game because of an ankle injury and it flared up on his first catch at Atlanta. That may be preventing Fant from going vertical more often.
But if Fant feels he’s ready, the Broncos should experiment on getting him touches in the middle of the field, behind the middle linebacker and in front of the safeties.
Fant can still do major work on short passes — he turned a one-yard throw into a 31-yard gain against Tennessee and a four-yard throw into a 32-yard gain at Atlanta. He has at least seven yards after the catch on seven of his receptions.
Among selected tight ends, Fant’s 10.5-yard average is more than Las Vegas’ Darren Waller (8.1) and the New York Giants’ Evan Engram (9.1), but well behind Kansas City’s Travis Kelce (13.3).
Unblocked defenders
Why it’s an issue: There are too many free pass rushers sacking Lock, putting him on the turf and forcing him to throw early. For the season, opponents have racked up 34 “disruptions” via unblocked defenders, including eight of the 23 sacks.
How to fix it: In the losses to Atlanta and Las Vegas, the Broncos have allowed two sacks, seven knockdowns and one pressure to unblocked players. The Raiders’ first sack and a big hit on Lock showed the issue.
On the sack, the Raiders rushed defensive end Maxx Crosby and linebacker Nicholas Morrow from Lock’s right (face-side). At the snap, right tackle Calvin Anderson blocked down. Running back Melvin Gordon picked up Crosby, who was the greater threat (closer to Lock). That allowed Morrow a free run and the easy sack in 2.27 seconds.
On the hit that injured Lock’s ribs, the Raiders had defensive end Arden Key lined up wide to Lock’s left (blind-side). At the snap, left tackle Garett Bolles had to account for blitzing safety Johnathan Abram, which gave Key a free rush and he hit Lock in 1.87 seconds. That shouldn’t happen when it’s a four-man rush vs. five-man protection (empty backfield).
Keeping a running back or tight end for a six-man protection or both for a seven-man pro, could allow Lock to survey the field (albeit with one or two fewer options).
Red zone-plus
Why it’s an issue: Thirteen of Brandon McManus’ 18 field goals have been from 40 or more yards out.
How to fix it: The Broncos are 13-of-25 in the red zone, but their issues start even before they get to the 20-yard line.
Per Stats, Inc., the Broncos’ per-play average of 3.01 yards inside the 30-yard line is second-worst in the NFL. The Broncos do enough good things to see the goal line, but have trouble punching it in. Their red-zone efficiency must improve.
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November 18, 2020 at 03:22AM
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How to kick-start scuffling Broncos offense? There are many areas to address. - The Denver Post
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