Why The Record-Breaking COVID Count In India Is Likely An Undercount : Goats and Soda - NPR

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Victims of COVID-19 are cremated in funeral pyres this week in New Delhi. Scientists says the real death toll and number of infections are likely much higher than what the Indian government is reporting. Jewel Samad/AFP via Getty Images

Jewel Samad/AFP via Getty Images

MUMBAI — Santosh Pandey's wife is the head of their village, population about 1,600, near the holy city of Varanasi in northern India. He sometimes answers her phone. So he's up to date on what's happening in town.

And what's happening these days, he said, is horrific.

Fifty people from his village, Ashapur, and a neighboring one, Tilamapur, have died in the past two weeks. Most died at home, gasping for breath, with fevers. But only five or six of them were officially counted as COVID-19 deaths, Pandey said.

"There's a shortage of coronavirus tests. Nobody's getting tested! So the government's numbers for our district are totally wrong," he told NPR on a crackly phone line from his village. "If you're able to get tested, results come after five days."

By that time, some of them are already gone – cremated on the banks of the nearby Ganges River.

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A health worker collects a nasal swab sample from a man to test for the coronavirus in Hyderabad. Tests are in short supply in India, where the Health Ministry confirmed 386,453 infections Friday — more than any country on any day since the pandemic began. Noah Seelam/AFP via Getty Images

Noah Seelam/AFP via Getty Images

This village's ordeal is not atypical. Across India, there are shortages of testing kits, hospital beds, medical oxygen and antiviral drugs as a severe second wave of the pandemic crushes the health infrastructure. The country has been breaking world records daily for new cases. On Friday, India's Health Ministry confirmed 386,453 infections – more than any country on any day since the pandemic began.

Part of the reason for the huge numbers is India's size: a population of nearly 1.4 billion. The rate of known coronavirus infections per capita is still less than the United States endured at its peak. In India, there have been nearly 19 million known infections since the start of the pandemic, or roughly 1.3% of the total population – compared with more than 32 million, or almost 10% of the U.S. population.

But survivors, funeral directors and scientists say the real numbers of infections and deaths in India may be many times more than the reported figures. The sheer number of patients has all but collapsed the health system in a country that invests less on public health — just above 1% of its gross domestic product — than most of its peers. (Brazil spends more than 9% of its GDP on health; in the U.S., the figure is nearly 18%.)

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A worker carries wood to a mass cremation site on the banks of the Ganges River in Allahabad on Tuesday. Ritesh Shukla/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Ritesh Shukla/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Discrepancies in the body count

Across India, funeral pyres light up the night sky. Playgrounds and parking lots in the capital, New Delhi, have been converted into mass cremation grounds.

"The situation is very grim here. We are short of everything," said Dr. Aniket Sirohi, a municipal health official in south Delhi. "I want to say to the world, 'Help us, in any way you can.' "

Sirohi is supposed to be working on malaria prevention. But since the pandemic began, he's had the unenviable job of counting bodies. Each day, he goes to every crematorium and burial ground in his district of the capital, tallying deaths from COVID-19. Of his 11 staff members, five currently have COVID-19, he said.

"We are just doing the best we can. The morale is pretty shaken up," he said. "I have not taken a single day off."

Last year, at the height of the pandemic's first wave in India, Sirohi said he was counting about 220 COVID-19 deaths a day. When NPR spoke to him Wednesday, he counted 702 for that day. He passes those numbers up the chain of command. But the death figures the government ultimately publishes for his region have been at least 20% lower than what he's seeing on the ground, he said.

He attributed this disparity to administrative chaos. People from neighboring states flock to Delhi for medical treatment. Some die in Delhi and are cremated there but remain registered as residents somewhere else. They don't get counted anywhere, he said.

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Health workers in protective gear tend to patients Wednesday in a banquet hall temporarily converted into a COVID-19 care center in New Delhi. Prakash Singh/AFP via Getty Images

Prakash Singh/AFP via Getty Images

"Somehow the numbers are not getting recorded or not shown or getting missed," Sirohi said. "India always had a poor record of maintaining these things. We have a lot of population. So there's a bit of a problem with coordination – especially in times like this, when 50% of my staff is sick."

In the western state of Gujarat, local media tracked 689 bodies that were cremated or buried under COVID-19 protocols in one day in mid-April. But just over a 10th of those deaths made it to the government's tally: The official death toll that day was 78. Such discrepancies are being reported in several states.

The "endgame" that wasn't an endgame

There is another reason why India's coronavirus numbers may be skewed: hubris. In early March, India's health minister declared that the country was in the "endgame of the COVID-19 pandemic." Daily cases had hit record lows of about 8,000 a day in early February, down from a peak of nearly 100,000 cases a day in September.

But over the winter, as cases began creeping up, some politicians didn't pay attention — or perhaps didn't believe the coronavirus could return.

Throughout April, as cases mounted, political parties held massive rallies and went door to door to ask for votes in five regions holding local elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi presided over several rallies where thousands of supporters gathered, many without masks and with little physical distancing.

"As far as I can see, in every direction, I can only see people and nothing else," Modi boasted onstage at an April 17 rally in West Bengal. India confirmed more than 200,000 new coronavirus cases that day.

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A patient rests inside a banquet hall converted into a COVID-19 ward on Tuesday in New Delhi. Money Sharma/AFP via Getty Images

Money Sharma/AFP via Getty Images

There have also been allegations that some politicians tried to suppress inconvenient news about rising case numbers.

Dr. A. Velumani runs Thyrocare, a nationwide chain of medical labs that conduct pathology tests on blood and other samples, including tests for the coronavirus. He said some of his labs have come under pressure from local officials to manipulate coronavirus tests and report fewer positive results.

"We are told, 'You shouldn't be doing more than this much,'" Velumani told local media. "In fact, in [a] good number of cases, the question is asked, 'Why [is] your laboratory reporting more positives than other local laboratories?' "

Fewer positive results mean fewer confirmed infections and fewer deaths attributed to the coronavirus. India's total pandemic deaths this week crossed the 200,000 mark. But that's still lower than the overall death tolls in the United States, Brazil and Mexico, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

There are reasons why fewer Indians might die from COVID-19. India is a very young country. Only 6% of Indians are older than 65. More than half the population is under 25. They're more likely to survive the disease.

But even considering India's demographics, scientists said the real death toll, and real number of total infections, are likely much higher than what the government is reporting.

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Relatives perform last rites amid funeral pyres during a mass cremation Tuesday at a New Delhi crematorium. Prakash Singh/AFP via Getty Images

Prakash Singh/AFP via Getty Images

Why the COVID-19 death count is likely an undercount

Mathematician Murad Banaji is a senior lecturer at Middlesex University in London. He's originally from Mumbai and has been studying the city's 2020 fatalities from COVID-19. By analyzing total excess deaths – i.e., the difference between total deaths in Mumbai one year, compared with the year before — he estimates that the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 would have to have been undercounted by at least two-thirds to account for the higher 2020 death tally.

And that was last year when the pandemic did not strain India's health system to the extent it has now.

"My gut instinct says that right now, because you've got an overwhelmed health system, you're probably seeing an even greater undercount [of COVID-19 deaths] than you would have seen in 2020," Banaji told NPR. "My optimistic estimate then was that for every death [from COVID-19] that was recorded during the year [2020], two more were missed."

Those calculations are just for Mumbai, India's richest major city, where access to health care is better than elsewhere. So the number of undercounted deaths could be even higher in less well-off parts of the country — such as in Santosh Pandey's village.

It's not just deaths that are likely being undercounted. Scientists said recorded infections are even more of an underestimate. But they have a better idea of how much infections have been undercounted because they have serological data from random antibody tests that authorities conducted across large swaths of the country.

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People line up to receive a COVID-19 vaccine on Tuesday in Mumbai. Punit Paranjpe/AFP via Getty Images

Punit Paranjpe/AFP via Getty Images

Results of a third national serological survey conducted in December and January showed that roughly a fifth of India's population had been exposed to the virus. That meant for every recorded coronavirus case, almost 30 went undetected.

But Banaji noted that capturing cases varies drastically from rural to urban areas. "You have much better detection of cases in urban areas. So for example in Delhi, about 10% of cases were being detected," he said. "Whereas in some areas of rural Bihar, considerably less than 1% of infections were being detected."

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Health workers transport a COVID-19 patient in a hospital complex last week in New Delhi. Maude Brulard/AFP via Getty Images

Maude Brulard/AFP via Getty Images

When will the wave peak?

Some scientists have been sounding the alarm about India's virus uptick since late February. Bhramar Mukherjee is one of them. She's a biostatistician at the University of Michigan who's designed models that show India's reported infections will peak in late May. She predicts India could be confirming as many as 1 million new cases a day and 4,500 daily deaths by then.

"There has been tremendous data denial. People didn't want to believe, and the government didn't want to believe, that this was actually going to explode," Mukherjee told NPR. "There was also a sense of premature celebration and exceptionalism."

Another model of India's current COVID-19 wave has been conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The institute's director, Chris Murray, told NPR that India may be detecting only 3% or 4% of its daily infections.

So when India confirms about 386,000 infections, as it did Friday, that may really mean it's seeing about 10 million infections, according to the institute's modeling.

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A COVID-19 patient breathes with the help of oxygen at a tent installed along a roadside on Wednesday in Ghaziabad. Prakash Singh/AFP via Getty Images

Prakash Singh/AFP via Getty Images

"There's going to be some protection from previous infection. So you'll start to run out of people who can get infected," Murray said. "We think that infections – the actual true number of infections, which is many multiples of the officially reported cases — would be peaking probably next week."

India's deaths in this latest wave would peak around the third week of May, according to the institute's model.

"Unfortunately, given the exponential rise in cases, we may see the daily death toll rise to over 10,000 or even 12,000 a day, before we get to that peak toward the end of May," Murray said.

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Police stop vehicles April 18 at a New Delhi checkpoint aimed at enforcing a weekend lockdown the government imposed in the wake of rising COVID-19 cases. Sajjad Hussain/AFP via Getty Images

Sajjad Hussain/AFP via Getty Images

That could mean more shortages, fewer hospital beds and more tragedy on top of what India has already endured in recent weeks.

For Sirohi, the public health official in south Delhi, it would mean many more bodies to count.

"We're preparing for that, kind of anticipating it. We've acquired wood from neighboring states, to build more funeral pyres," he said. "Let's hope that doesn't happen. If it does, we'll have to face it."

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The Many Ways Colleges Are Handling Covid-Complicated Graduations - The New York Times

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With vaccinations on the rise, many colleges are planning in-person commencements, sowing frustration on campuses sticking to online ones.

Her first reaction after receiving the email from the University of Tampa announcing that commencement would be conducted online was to cry. Across Florida, larger colleges were announcing plans for in-person graduations — so why not hers?

Then 22-year-old Allison Clark dried her tears and turned to Instagram, asking: If Tampa hosted an in-person graduation, would they attend?

When 80 percent of the respondents said “Yes,” she and two classmates created a GoFundMe and started selling tickets. They were quickly overwhelmed as classmates and their parents pitched in more than $25,000 — significantly more than the $12,000 price tag for the convention center they are renting for their self-funded graduation, now scheduled for next week.

There will not be too many do-it-yourself graduations, but across the country, parents and graduates will confront commencements in May that are as atypical, modified and sometimes contentious as the past school year has been.

Many of the schools doing in-person ceremonies are putting in extensive safety measures, like the University of Maryland Eastern Shore, which is requiring graduates and their families to provide proof of vaccination, or else a negative coronavirus test, said the university’s president, Heidi M. Anderson.

Rhodes College is seating participants in pods of eight and issuing each person a ticket for the purpose of contact tracing. Vanderbilt University and Northeastern University are among those staggering arrival times at the ceremony, so that students enter the venue in shifts, reducing the size of each gathering.

Most colleges are placing restrictions on the number of guests each graduate is allowed to bring. Brown and Yale Universities are among schools that only allow students to the ceremony. Parents can watch a livestreamed version.

But in the second year of the pandemic, with millions vaccinated, more campuses than not are choosing to do in-person events, according to Mildred Garcia, president of the American Association of State Colleges and Universities. As a result, campuses that are sticking to virtual-only ceremonies have become outliers, sometimes breeding frustration.

Ms. Stange with her graduation cords at the Tampa Convention Center. She and her classmates raised $25,000 for their ceremony.Zack Wittman for The New York Times

“To be with my classmates, to walk across the stage, to receive the diploma that we all worked so hard for, it means absolutely everything, and a 45-minute virtual commencement of my name being scrolled across the screen just simply wasn’t enough,” says Ms. Clark at the University of Tampa.

Especially vexing for the graduating senior was learning that the University of Florida — which is graduating a class five times larger than the private college in Tampa — was offering in-person commencement options, though not the usual mass ceremony.

Also offering in-person opportunities are the University of South Florida, Florida State University and the University of Miami, all of them significantly larger than Tampa, which has an undergraduate enrollment of less than 9,000 students.

In an emailed statement, a university spokesman, Eric Cardenas, reiterated what college leaders told the student body two months ago when they announced plans for a virtual-only event: “Simply put, given the continued uncertainty of Covid-19, advice from public health officials and rules governing large gatherings, the university could not realistically host a safe — yet meaningful — academic celebration.”

Peter Hotez, the co-director of the Texas Children’s Center for Vaccine Development, said that universities — as well as unhappy parents and graduates complaining about virtual commencements — were overlooking a common-sense solution.

“The answer is very simple,” he said. “By July or August, we should have a dramatic decline in transmission because the amount of vaccine coverage would be dramatically increased by then,” he explained. “Just postpone graduation to the end of the summer.”

He added that universities — especially ones that are in proximity to one another, or that are part of a consortium like the Big Ten athletic conference — should have a uniform approach, since the lack of coordination sows confusion. “The best thing to do is not have one school do one thing, and another school do another,” he said.

But that coordination is not happening, and because each institution is making its own decision, the result is an uneven landscape.

Sometimes, campuses within walking distance are choosing radically different approaches. In Massachusetts, Harvard University announced that its seniors would graduate virtually and their diplomas would be mailed to them, while just two miles away, Boston University will be hosting an in-person graduation.

Not all online graduations have generated a backlash, and only a handful of institutions have faced public and sustained protest. But in some cases, parents and students have made their displeasure known.

Tammy Dahlstrom, whose 22-year-old daughter is graduating this weekend from the University of Michigan, said the contrast with nearby institutions had made the university’s decision to hold an online event difficult to accept.

The Ann Arbor campus is built around the university’s iconic stadium, which is capable of seating more than 100,000 people — and is both the largest in the country, and one of the largest in the world.

The University of Michigan administration announced that graduating seniors would be allowed to go into Michigan Stadium to take pictures.Gregory Shamus/Getty Image

Yet campuses in Michigan with far less outdoor seating capacity are going ahead with in-person events, like Michigan State University, which announced it would hold 50 staggered ceremonies to ensure social distancing, and the University of Michigan’s Dearborn campus. Michigan is one of the only Big Ten schools to opt for a virtual commencement.

“It is inconceivable that we would be in the same position this year when the university had a year to plan,” said Ms. Dahlstrom in an email.

Parents began an email and text message campaign to try to get the administration to change its plan. A petition garnered close to 6,000 names.

When that still did not move the needle, Ms. Dahlstrom drove the two and a half hours from her home in North Muskegon, on the shore of Lake Michigan, to join a small group of parents and students who stood on the streets of Ann Arbor, holding up placards demanding an in-person ceremony.

Michigan has one of the highest coronavirus caseloads in the country, and hospitals have been overwhelmed, but parents point to numerous other campuses across the state that are choosing to do in-person commencements.

Rick Fitzgerald, a spokesman for the university, said the spike in cases in the state justified the university’s caution.

“The situation is still very precarious in Michigan with regard to the virus,” he said.

He also cautioned that the comparison to other universities is not apples-to-apples because of the international character of the school’s student body: “Dearborn made a different decision, but almost all of their students are local,” he said. “Ours come from all over the state of Michigan and all over the country, and around the world.”

A rally in March in support of in-person graduation at the University of Michigan.Dominick Sokotoff/The Michigan Daily

Possibly because of pressure from the parent group, the university has made a number of changes. In early March, the administration announced that graduating seniors would be allowed to go into the stadium to take pictures.

Following continued pressure, the university announced in late March that students would be allowed to watch the graduation on a screen, while sitting inside the stadium.

Calder Lewis, an editor for the university’s daily newspaper who covered the protest, said parents were more engaged in the pushback than students were. “For a lot of parents, this is their kids’ last chance to get something normal out of their college experience, and they want to see just one last send-off,” he said.

The decision on what kind of commencement to hold is particularly charged at universities where a majority of students are the first in their family to go to college.

“It is a generational celebration,” said Dr. Anderson, who was herself the first in her family to graduate and now heads the University of Maryland Eastern Shore, where a majority of students are in the same category.

That is the same calculus that pushed Montclair State University to become one of the few campuses in New Jersey to hold an in-person ceremony last year, despite a letter of objection signed by 120 faculty members. (It is having an in-person ceremony this year, too.)

Other campuses face similar issues.

“We get an average of eight family members per graduate,” said Tomás D. Morales, the president of California State University in San Bernardino, where 85 percent of students are the first in their families to attend college, he said. “To have a commencement and not be able to invite mom and dad, or abuela and abuelo or cousins and siblings doesn’t work for our campus.”

It is precisely because of the generational importance of the ceremony that his campus followed the plan proposed by Dr. Hotez — it decided to do a virtual event this spring, followed by a traditional commencement at a later point.

Meanwhile in Tampa, the three organizers of the do-it-yourself graduation are pulling out all the stops to give their classmates a real commencement, even as the university has made it clear that it does not endorse it. Attendees will receive a 10-page program. A video and slide show tribute featuring each participating senior will play before the graduate walks across the stage of the rented convention hall.

Ms. Stange, Ms. Clark and Ms. Steele prepared a printed program and video tributes for their ceremony.Zack Wittman for The New York Times

Because the students are not authorized to give out diplomas to their classmates, the organizers have instead printed certificates marking the occasion, which will be laid out on a table — a no-contact approach in a nod to safety protocols.

“This is a moment that every kid dreams of growing up,” said Emma Stange, one of the organizers. “To not really have that celebratory closure when you move on to the next stage of life, it just leaves an open, hanging end.”

Amelia Nierenberg contributed reporting. Sheelagh McNeill contributed research.

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Digital artist Beeple sees NFTs, like the one he sold for over $69 million, around for 'many decades' - CNBC

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Beeple told CNBC on Friday he thinks NFTs are here to stay.

The digital artist, whose real name is Mike Winkelmann, became widely known this year when he sold a nonfungible token photo collage, "Everyday: The First 5,000 Days," for more than $69 million at a Christie's auction in March.

"I believe so strongly in this technology because it's so simple in terms of proving ownership and it can be applied to so many different things that I think long term it has such a massive opportunity and massive possibility of really being looked at as a true alternate asset class," Beeple said in a "TechCheck" interview.

"I think where we are over the course of this two months or whatever, I think this is an industry that's going to be around for many, many decades," he added.

NFTs are unique digital assets — often in the form of JPEGs or video clips — that can be bought and sold. The transactions are recorded on a blockchain register, similar to those that underpin bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

While the average person may not yet know much about NFTs, which have exploded in popularity in recent months, Beeple said he thinks this trend will grow as consumers look for more quality and long-term value in their assets. Critics of the NFT craze see it as temporary, suggesting the values of NFTs will eventually decline sharply once it becomes less desirable to own the digital assets.

Less than two weeks after Beeple sold "5,000 Days," Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey's first tweet, offered for sale as a nonfungible token, was sold for 1,630.58 ether. That was equivalent to about $2.9 million based on ether's price at the time of sale.

NBA Top Shots, which are NFTs of NBA highlight videos, have raked in sales topping $200 million, with a LeBron James video selling for $208,000. Grimes, the musician and artist, also sold NFTs of videos and music for more than $6 million.

"It's still very much something that I see a massive room for growth, but I think you're seeing people start looking for a bit more sort of quality in their releases here and something that they think is going to retain value long term," Beeple said. "I think that's super healthy for the whole entire ecosystem."

Beeple also teased a bit about his future digital artwork and how he wants to expand his digital pieces into physical platforms that people can use and connect with, something he thinks would be beneficial for future innovations for NFTs.

"Digital art is, at the end of the day, going to be seen in the real world somewhere, whether that's your phone, whether that's your computer screen. So what I want to do is make some really cool screens for people to view this on and something that feels like it's very cohesive and sort of packaged with the artwork itself and something that feels like a physical extension of that digital artwork," he told CNBC.

"People are going to be looking for something that connects with them or have uses, and that's where they're gonna put their money," he added, without revealing anything more about what he's up to except to say he'll be ready to announce something very soon.

— CNBC's Jessica Bursztynsky contributed to this report.

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Are the Tokyo Olympics in danger of being canceled? - KSAT San Antonio

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Rising COVID-19 cases, little vaccination distribution and increased opposition to even have the event -- it’s not a good combination for Tokyo right now, as it tries to pull off hosting an already-delayed Summer Olympics that’s less than three months from its scheduled start date.

But while it’s not the host city’s fault, and organizers are doing their best to put on the Games in the safest way possible, Japanese Olympic officials are still having to navigate through some serious issues right now. Let’s dive in.

---

What is the COVID situation right now in Japan?

It’s not ideal, as another wave of cases (4,698 new cases as of April 24) forced Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to declare a state of emergency for Tokyo and three other prefectures.

Bars, department stores and theaters across the country will be closed through May 11.

What is the vaccine situation?

This also isn’t good. As of April 21, Japan had administered just more than 2 million vaccines to its citizens, according to Forbes.

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Why Zillow's Competitive Advantage Is In Danger - Motley Fool

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With housing soaring and the pandemic forcing more activity online, the current environment has meaningfully boosted Zillow Group's (NASDAQ:ZG) (NASDAQ:Z) stock. Both the value it creates and its growing real estate ecosystem have sent revenue soaring. Despite this success, the offerings of its lower-cost competition could bring uncertainty to the real estate stock.

Let's take a closer look at the competitive advantages of Zillow and its peers to evaluate the threat.

Zillow's competitive advantage

Zillow began by pioneering a website that caters to the real estate industry. It leveraged the power of the internet to connect buyers and sellers and now proclaims itself the most-visited real estate site in the U.S.

Image source: Getty Images.

The company has also threatened to disrupt the real estate industry in more profound ways. It has recently ventured into the direct purchase and sale of homes through Zillow Offers. Nonetheless, that makes up just one part of its ecosystem. The company also has ventured into the financial services realm by offering mortgage services and performs closings through Zillow Home Loans and Zillow Closing Services, respectively. These can potentially involve Zillow in the home sales process from beginning to end.

Who are its disruptors?

However, for all of the changes Zillow has made to the real estate industry, it has done little to cut transaction costs. The average home in the U.S. now sells for around $400,000. Since both the buying and selling agent usually receive a 3% commission each, selling fees can amount to $24,000 alone. This does not include other sales-related costs such as staging, concessions, or repairs. Such costs leave both the traditional real estate industry and Zillow vulnerable to lower-cost challengers.

Opendoor (NASDAQ:OPEN) began a buying and selling service in 2014. This service cut the total commission to 5%, one percentage point lower than a traditional sale. Opendoor has also built an extensive trade-in program, allowing customers to buy a home at the same time they "trade-in," or sell their current home to Opendoor.

This forced Zillow to establish Zillow Offers. Since Zillow's site has built a name recognition advantage, Zillow Offers has become an increasingly important part of the company, making up more than half of its revenue in 2020. However, unlike Zillow, Opendoor will also provide a free offer within 24 hours. Zillow has also not matched Opendoor's rent-back option, and Opendoor's trade-in program remains larger.

Zillow peer Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN) also buys homes, and it has added pressure on Zillow's business model in other areas. Like Zillow, it also offers services for mortgages and closings.

However, investors can find reasons to like Redfin better than Zillow. Instead of referring agents, it hires them, and these agents act as a buy or sell representative for their clients. For its full service, it charges a 1% commission for its side of the transaction. Clients who choose the concierge service, which also fixes up homes, pay a 2% commission.

Zillow may struggle to match this deal. If clients can find agents willing to accept 1% or 2%, Zillow's referrals for agents who charge 3% hold less value. Moreover, if Zillow starts hiring its own agents, it undermines that core referral business. Hence, either change would bring deep uncertainty for Zillow investors.

How the financials compare

Despite this challenge, Zillow continues on an upward growth trajectory. Revenue increased by 22% to just over $3.3 billion. Since operating costs only rose by 4%, it cut its net loss to $162 million. Zillow lost $305 million in 2019.

In contrast, Opendoor experienced a 46% drop in revenue in 2020 to just under $2.6 billion. It had to drastically cut sales and marketing expenses and interest expenses to reduce its losses from $341 million in 2019 to $287 million in 2020.

Redfin's revenue rose by 14% to $886 million in 2020. It also cut its 2020 net loss to just under $19 million, down from $81 million in 2019. This occurred because operating expenses climbed by less than 4% during this time.

Neither Zillow nor its peers offered guidance past the first quarter. However, Zillow forecasts little change in revenue levels year over year, while Redfin expects revenue to rise by at least 30%. Opendoor did not post year-over-year numbers but predicts a return of sequential revenue growth.

Still, Zillow posted the highest stock price growth of the two, rising 270% over the last 12 months, versus 250% for Redfin. Opendoor launched its IPO in December but has not logged any meaningful gains since that time.

RDFN data by YCharts

Could these companies supplant Zillow?

Now, the question is whether Zillow stock will continue to increase faster than its peers. Although Opendoor appears positioned for revenue recovery in the near term, it holds only a modest competitive advantage over Zillow in a few limited areas.

The more significant threat comes from Redfin. Its lower-cost solution could force Zillow to make fundamental changes that would bring uncertainty. Additionally, with Redfin posting more consistent revenue increases, its stock could attract interest at the expense of Zillow's. Consequently, Zillow's future prosperity could depend in large part on how it responds to this challenge.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis -- even one of our own -- helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.

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State comptroller warned for years of overcrowding danger at Meron site - The Times of Israel

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The state comptroller warned on at least two occasions that the site at the Mount Meron compound was dangerously ill-equipped for the hundreds of thousands who regularly attend Lag B’Omer celebrations there, while an internal police report in 2016 said that the chaos in the site’s management could lead to disaster.

At least 45 people were crushed to death and more than 150 people hurt, including many in critical condition, in a tragedy at a mass gathering to celebrate the Lag B’Omer holiday at the Mount Meron site in the early hours of Friday morning.

A 2008 state comptroller report had previously warned of “systemic failure at the Rashbi [Rabbi Shimon bar Yochai] compound” at Meron due to “many different authorities all involved in its management,” noting that it was a chaotic situation that would lead to harm to the holy site as well as endangering worshipers.

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In an additional report from 2011, it was once again emphasized that the site was underprepared for receiving hundreds of thousands of people.

“The existing situation should not be allowed to continue — including the neglected structure where [certain] groups do as they wish, to the abandonment of a site of great importance, both nationally and religiously,” the state comptroller said.

Israeli security officials and rescuers carry the bodies of victims who died during Lag B’Omer celebrations at Mount Meron in northern Israel, April 30, 2021 (AP Photo/Sebastian Scheiner)

The various reports revealed that by standard police safety regulations for public gatherings, the site should not have been permitted to hold more than about 15,000 people. Officials have estimated the crowds at the site on Thursday evening at over 100,000, a number that was significantly lower than in many previous years.

An internal police document also warned of the potential for chaos and disaster at the Meron site.

Commander Ilan Mor, head of the operational branch of the national traffic police, produced a report in 2016 titled, “Meron celebrations: Erasing the writing on the wall.”

The document analyzed past tragedies caused by overcrowding at public events, including disasters and near-disasters at Meron itself, and concluded that the infrastructure at the holy site could not safely accommodate the numbers of worshipers that attended each year at Lag B’Omer.

In the report, Mor called to limit the number of people attending and to appoint a single organizer to manage the site, instead of allowing each Hasidic sect to run its own area.

Israeli rescue forces and police at a mass fatality scene, after a stampede in a packed walkway, during celebrations of the holiday of Lag B’Omer on Mt. Meron, in northern Israel on April 30, 2021. (David Cohen/Flash90)

The attorney general announced on Friday that the Justice Ministry’s Police Internal Investigations Department will immediately open a probe into possible police negligence in the fatal stampede.

Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit, in a statement, said “it was decided that the PIID will immediately examine whether there are suspicions of criminality by police in the tragedy in Meron.”

Mandelblit added that at the initial stage, testimony would not be taken from police officers who were present at the scene.

Public Security Minister Amir Ohana, who oversees the police and was present at the event on Thursday just a few hours before the deadly stampede, called for an independent inquiry.

“It is clear an independent examination of all aspects related to the planning of the event will be needed, [including the] preparation, responsibilities, infrastructure and the like,” Ohana said.

The tragedy occurred as thousands streamed through a narrow walkway that was covered with metal flooring and may have been wet, causing some people to fall underfoot during the rush for the exit.

Some apparently fell on the walkway and down a flight of stairs at its end, toppling onto those below and precipitating a stampede and fatal crushing domino effect. Unaware of the disaster unfolding, police blocked the exit from the walkway for a time, eyewitnesses said.

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The many marvelous feasts of St. Joseph - denvercatholic.org

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By Mary Farrow 
Contributing Writer 

On March 19, less than four months after Pope Francis announced the celebration of the Year of St. Joseph, the Church celebrated the Solemnity of St. Joseph, the highest feast day dedicated to Jesus’ foster father and the head of the Holy Family.  

But while Catholics may have eaten their fill of zeppole and other St. Joseph’s Day treats, they need not think that their only chance to celebrate this great saint has come and gone. There are many days throughout the liturgical year during which they can honor the Guardian of Virgins, Hope of the Sick, Patron of the Dying, Terror of Demons –St. Joseph.  
 
Most of the days included in this article can also be dates on which to conclude a Consecration to St. Joseph, using the recent guide by Fr. Donald Calloway, MIC.  
 
January 23: Feast of the Holy Spouses 
In the 1400s, French theologian Jean Gerson proposed a feast day honoring the marriage of Joseph and Mary of the Holy Family. 
 
The feast grew in popularity among certain regions and religious orders. St. Joseph Marello introduced the feast to the Oblates of St. Joseph in the 1800s because he “reflected upon the fact that the greatest saints of all time, Mary and Joseph, lived an ordinary, hidden life, and that sanctity therefore consisted in daily expressions of love in family life, work, and prayer,” the Oblates state on their website.  
 
Where it is celebrated, the feast can be a time for couples to renew their marriage vows to one another.  

Oil on panel painting of the Presentation of Christ in the Temple, mix of Medieval and Northern Renaissance elements, showing St. Simeon, Virgin Mary, St. Joseph, Baby Jesus, and Anna, circa 1500

February 2: The Presentation of the Lord  
The feast of the Presentation marks the day that Mary and Joseph brought Jesus to the temple in Jerusalem, to consecrate him and offer sacrifices to God in the Jewish tradition.  
 
During the Presentation, Simeon the prophet, who had been awaiting the Messiah, announced that he had now seen the salvation of the Lord. Simeon also prophesied to Mary:  “Behold, this child is destined for the fall and rise of many in Israel, and to be a sign that will be contradicted (and you yourself a sword will pierce) so that the thoughts of many hearts may be revealed.” 
 
While this was not directed at Joseph, he would have heard it and realized that he would not be alive for Jesus’ Passion and death, and Mary’s great sorrow.  
 
Several saints have reflected on St. Joseph in this moment, including Blessed Concepcion Cabrera de Armida, a Mexican woman who established Religious of the Cross of the Sacred Heart of Jesus.  
 
“And how greatly you (St. Joseph) suffered at the vision of her (Mary’s) martyrdom without you, the solitude of the wife whom you loved so well. Oh what martyrdom wracked your soul at the forevision of the Passion and the seven swords which would pierce the Immaculate Heart of Mary. You dreamed of her alone, alone without Jesus – and this affliction embittered your happy life,” she wrote in a reflection included in Father Calloway’s Consecration to St. Joseph.  
This feast day is traditionally celebrated by the blessing of candles and candlelit processions. It is also a good time to meditate on the devotion of St. Joseph’s Seven Sorrows and Seven Joys.  

March 19: The Solemnity of St. Joseph 
This primary and highest feast of St. Joseph is celebrated annually on March 19. Because this feast is a solemnity, even though it falls during Lent, the faithful are dispensed of their Lenten obligations on this day.  
 
Since the 10th century, several Western countries celebrated March 19 as the Feast of St. Joseph, with the feast day becoming the official practice of the Church in the 1500s. 

Large celebrations of this feast are particularly popular in Italy, especially in the town of Sicily, of which St. Joseph is the patron saint. Italian-American celebrations of St. Joseph’s Day also grew in popularity as a point of Italian-American pride, following just two days after St. Patrick’s Day celebrations.  

Besides attending Mass and praying the St. Joseph novena, St. Joseph’s Day traditions include the making and eating of zeppole, an Italian cream puff-like pastry, and the decoration of large St. Joseph’s tables. These tables include a statue or icon of the saint, along with gifts and food to be eaten at feast day parties. Many cities also hold St. Joseph’s Day parades.  
 
May 1: The Feast of St. Joseph the Worker  
Besides March 19, this is perhaps the most widely known and celebrated feast honoring the foster father of Jesus. While St. Joseph was always known to the Church as a carpenter, the idea of Joseph as a patron of workers took on added significance in the 20th century, when the Church spent much effort combating the atheistic ideas of the communist movement.  
 
According to Franciscan media, the Feast of St. Joseph the Worker was instituted by Pope Pius XII in 1955 as a counter to Communist May Day celebrations honoring workers. He likely took his cue from his predecessor, Pope Pius XI, who upheld St. Joseph as a counter to the Communist worker ideal in his encyclical on atheistic communism. 
 
“Along with the humanity of the Son of God, work too has been taken up in the mystery of the Incarnation, and has also been redeemed in a special way. At the workbench where he plied his trade together with Jesus, Joseph brought human work closer to the mystery of the Redemption,” Pope John Paul II, also a staunch opponent of communism, wrote in Guardian of the Redeemer, an apostolic exhortation on St. Joseph.  
 
May 13: Feast of Our Lady of Fatima 
While most Catholics likely think of the Feast of Our Lady of Fatima primarily as a Marian feast, marking the appearances of Mary to the three shepherd children at Fatima, St. Joseph also appeared during the final apparition, on the day of the famous “dancing sun.”  
 
St. Joseph appeared to the children on October 13, 1917, next to Mary, holding the Child Jesus and appearing to bless the world with the sign of the Cross, according to Sister Lucia, one of the shepherd children to whom Mary appeared. 

“The Oct. 13 vision reminds us that in these troublesome times, we can and should turn to the Holy Family to reorder our own lives. Like the Holy Family, we are to define our lives by humble and trusting commitment to God and self-sacrifice to one another,” wrote Father Dan Cambra, MIC, in a 2019 post for the Marians of the Immaculate Conception.   
 
August 21: Feast of Our Lady of Knock  
St. Joseph also appeared next to the Blessed Virgin Mary in the Irish apparition of Our Lady of Knock. According to the Knock shrine, alongside Mary, St. John the Evangelist and the Lamb on the altar, St. Joseph appeared, standing to Mary’s right, with his head bowed as if in prayer.  
 
“There at Our Lady’s side, was her spouse, his head bent in prayer and support. St. Joseph, in his own quiet way, points each of us in the direction of Our Blessed Mother. He invites us to place all our prayers and intercessions in Her care, as She intercedes for us with Her Son. In these unprecedented and challenging times, that message is as relevant to us today as it was in 1879,” the Knock Shrine in Ireland said in a statement following the announcement of the Year of St. Joseph.  
 
November 1-2: All Saint’s Day and All Soul’s Day  
In November, the Church remembers the faithful who have passed on in a special way – both those who are known to be in heaven (the saints) and those who may still be in purgatory (the souls).  
 
Both of these feast days are an excellent time to honor St. Joseph, who is called Patron of the Dying and Delight of the Saints. Additionally, the entire month of November is dedicated to praying for all those who have died and would be an ideal time to ask for the intercession of St. Joseph.  
 
While the death of St. Joseph is not in the Bible, it is held by Church tradition, and confirmed in the visions of some saints, that St. Joseph would have died in the presence of Jesus and Mary, making him the patron of a happy death.  
 
“Since we all must die, we should cherish a special devotion to St. Joseph that he may obtain for us a happy death,” St. Alphonsus Liguori said.  
 
December 10: Our Lady of Loreto  
The feast of Our Lady of Loreto celebrates the house of the Blessed Virgin Mary and the Holy Family. This house is believed to be the site of the Annunciation, as well as the home where the Holy Family would have lived for many years after their return from Egypt.  

The Heavenly and Earthly Trinities, Bartolomé Esteban Murillo

This is where St. Joseph would have spent much of his life, loving and caring for Mary and Jesus. This feast day could be an opportunity to meditate more deeply on one of the titles of St. Joseph, which is Glory of Domestic life. This house is also believed to be the place where St. Joseph died, surrounded by the loving presence of Jesus and Mary.  
 
The house, now located in Loreto, Italy, is believed by some to have been magically transported by angels from Nazareth in the 1200s – first to a spot in Croatia, and then to Loreto. The holy site draws many pilgrims every year. 

December 26: Feast of the Holy Family  
Because the seasons of Advent and Christmas center around the Holy Family, they are good times to remember and celebrate St. Joseph, who was the head of the Holy Family and is known among his many titles as the Pillar of Families.   
 
In December 2006, Pope Benedict XVI offered a reflection on the Holy Family: “Mary and Joseph taught Jesus primarily by their example: in his parents he came to know the full beauty of faith, of love for God and for his Law, as well as the demands of justice, which is totally fulfilled in love,” he said.  

“The Holy Family of Nazareth is truly the ‘prototype’ of every Christian family which, united in the Sacrament of Marriage and nourished by the Word and the Eucharist, is called to carry out the wonderful vocation and mission of being the living cell not only of society but also of the Church, a sign and instrument of unity for the entire human race,” he added.  

Every Wednesday  
Finally, just as the Church has dedicated particular days of the week to particular devotions – Sundays to the Resurrection of the Lord, Mondays to the Holy Spirit, Saturdays to Our Lady, and so on – Wednesdays are devoted to St. Joseph.  
 
According to the Diocese of Charlotte’s website dedicated to the Year of St. Joseph, “Holy Mother Church has given Wednesday, ‘the day the week turns on’ — as author David Clayton highlights in his book The Little Oratory — to St. Joseph. This means that the middle of the week is the perfect time to reflect on, be grateful for, and intercede on behalf of holy fatherhood, both spiritual and biological.”

---

Featured image: Altarpiece of St. Joseph the Worker, by Pietro Annigoni in the Basilica di San Lorenzo in Florence, Italy

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First Alert Forecast: Fire Danger Threat Today, Cooler Saturday - WIS10

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Drier air will be pushing in behind a cold front today. Because of the dry air coming in and wind created by the front up to 20mph, we have an elevated fire danger. Burning is not recommended today as fuels are dry, as is the relative humidity (near 20-30%). High temps reach the mid 80s by the afternoon with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.

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Column: Assessing vaccine 'danger' | Columns | salemnews.com - The Salem News

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Column: Assessing vaccine 'danger' | Columns | salemnews.com  The Salem News

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Many auto lenders offered deferrals to borrowers during Covid. The country's biggest subprime lender did not. - NBC News

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Monique Williams lost her job as a receptionist in a Detroit apartment building last year during the Covid-19 pandemic. Now she is learning how hard it is to get back on track with her debt obligations.

Perhaps her toughest challenge, she says, has been the high-cost auto loan she took out in 2016 with Credit Acceptance Corp., the country's largest company specializing in so-called subprime loans for borrowers with tarnished credit.

Williams said that when she and her husband were having trouble meeting their obligations last year, she asked Credit Acceptance whether she could pay a smaller amount temporarily or defer her payments. While the company offered some Covid-19-related accommodations — halting late fees and repossessions — deferrals were not an option.

"I have been paying for this car for four years — over $12,000 — and I couldn't even get a deferment," Williams said. The car died in December 2019, she said, but about $2,000 on the loan remains outstanding.

Monique Williams.NBC News

Cars are essential for people to get to jobs, grocery stores and vaccination centers, but the government has provided no federal assistance earmarked for auto loans during the pandemic. Stimulus checks helped borrowers stave off defaults, of course, and some states halted repossessions, but providing other accommodations, such as deferments, fell to the lenders themselves.

There is no direct assistance for car loans in part because, unlike student loans and mortgages, there is no federal regulation of lending in the auto arena, said John Van Alst, a lawyer at the National Consumer Law Center, a nonprofit that advocates for low-income Americans. Now, as the country reopens for business, lender accommodations are starting to disappear, and Van Alst said car repossessions are rising among subprime borrowers. And when it comes to costly subprime auto loans, "there's not much of a margin, and the least little thing can get somebody into a default," he said.

Early in the pandemic, many lenders filled the gap left by the government, offering deferments and halting late fees; as a result, auto loan defaults last year fell to their lowest rate in 15 years, said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive, a company that provides services to the car industry.

Credit Acceptance, however, did not offer such deferrals. The company says it froze reporting on borrowers' credit reports and suspended late fees and collection activities, such as phone calls and repossessions, for 90 days for customers hurt by Covid-19. After that, however, borrowers must make their monthly payments; if they don't, the lender's website says, the company may resume repossessions and late charges.

Credit Acceptance, founded in 1972, is the country's largest standalone subprime auto lender; it generated $1.7 billion in revenue last year. Since the pandemic began, the company's stock has surged by over 50 percent. Credit Acceptance awarded stock grants to seven top executives worth an estimated $55 million, regulatory filings show.

Last summer, Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey sued Credit Acceptance, saying its lending and collection practices were predatory and illegal in the state. The company announced Thursday that it had agreed to settle with Healey, paying $27.2 million.

"Credit acceptance made high-interest loans to borrowers that the company knew they couldn't repay," Healey told NBC News before the settlement was announced. "What I consider predatory about these practices is that they're specifically targeting vulnerable people, people who may not be able to qualify for normal loans, normal finance arrangements."

As it disclosed the settlement, Credit Acceptance also announced the retirement of its longtime CEO, Brett A. Roberts. On a conference call with investors and analysts Thursday, Roberts said he was retiring for "personal reasons." Chief Financial Officer Kenneth Booth, a former director of internal audit, will replace him, the company said.

Credit Acceptance did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the settlement.

Credit Acceptance's regulatory filings show it is under scrutiny in 43 other states beyond Massachusetts and by the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, or CFPB. A spokeswoman for Credit Acceptance said before the settlement that the company does not discuss matters involving active litigation but intends to defend itself vigorously.

Monique Williams with her 2008 Pontiac.NBC News

Williams is not the only borrower unhappy with Credit Acceptance. As of March 24, the company had generated over 150 complaints from customers on the CFPB's website, including those about its credit reporting.

From January 2018 to the middle of last month, the company said, CFPB data showed that complaints solely about its loans totaled 585. That made it No. 5 on the list, behind Santander Consumer USA, Ally Financial, Wells Fargo and Capital One, all much larger companies.

The Credit Acceptance spokeswoman said: "With over 1.7 million accounts being serviced, complaints are extremely rare," totaling fewer than 4 per 10,000 customers annually.

In addition to Williams, NBC News spoke with eight other unhappy Credit Acceptance borrowers; their loan documents show how costly the company's financing is.

Williams and her husband, for example, bought a 2008 Pontiac with 70,000 miles on the odometer for about $18,500. Together they put down $1,000 cash and borrowed the rest from Credit Acceptance at 22.9 percent interest. The cost of the car was $10,500, the contract shows. Over the five-year life of the loan, Williams' finance charges would add another $7,140.

Monique Williams bought her car at Great Deal Auto Sales in Detroit.Google Maps

The Williamses' almost 23 percent interest rate is common among Credit Acceptance borrowers, and it is considerably higher than the average of 17.8 percent subprime borrowers were charged last year, according to Experian.

But the rate is only the beginning of a Credit Acceptance borrower's costs, according to the Massachusetts lawsuit. It said Credit Acceptance levied a hidden charge that added 37 percent to 68 percent to loans for customers with low credit scores. The complaint also contends that Credit Acceptance required many borrowers to buy vehicle service contracts that added, on average, $2,500 to their loans.

Those practices inflate the final cost of a vehicle, the Massachusetts lawsuit alleged. From 2013 to 2019, the average Credit Acceptance customer in the state wound up paying about $20,000 for a used car, more than 2½ times the vehicle's cost to the dealer of about $7,800.

When customers defaulted, Massachusetts investigators alleged, Credit Acceptance's policy was to call them eight times a day to try to collect. Massachusetts law allows only two collection calls a week, the lawsuit said.

In addition to high costs and aggressive collection practices, Credit Acceptance has also been big in repossessions. In a 2015 conference call with stock analysts, Credit Acceptance's chief treasury officer, Doug Busk, said the company typically repossessed cars in 35 percent of the loans in its most popular lending program.

No official source tracks car repossession volumes in the U.S., so the figure is difficult to assess. But it certainly seems high; according to an estimate from Cox Automotive, just 2.06 percent of auto loans resulted in repossessions in 2015.

Credit Acceptance's spokeswoman declined to provide updated figures about repossessions. Of the nine Credit Acceptance customers interviewed by NBC News, three said their cars had been repossessed; two had filed for bankruptcy protection in part to prevent repossession.

When Credit Acceptance repossesses a car, the borrower must continue to pay the amount owed. That can include payments on a vehicle service agreement the borrower can no longer benefit from. While filing for bankruptcy protection helps to stop a repossession, such a move damages a consumer's credit standing.

Even as Covid-19 was imperiling its borrowers, Credit Acceptance awarded stock option grants worth an estimated $55 million to seven top executives in late December. Regulatory filings show that the awards exceeded the amount of stock allowed for issuance under the company's active compensation plan by a quarter of a million shares.

Recipients were Busk, the chief treasury officer who spoke about repossessions; Booth, the former chief financial officer and new CEO; Charles A. Pearce, the chief legal officer; Arthur L. Smith, the chief analytics officer; Daniel A. Ulatowski, the chief sales officer; and Jonathan Lum, the chief operating officer.

Through the company spokeswoman, the men declined to be interviewed.

Scott Vassalluzzo is chairman of the compensation committee of the Credit Acceptance board and a managing member of Prescott General Partners, an investment firm that is Credit Acceptance's largest shareholder. He said in a statement: "The awarded options represent 100 percent of incentive compensation. The compensation committee and the CEO believe it's a good deal for shareholders and fair deal for the executives given the composition, experience and track record of the team."

Shareholders of Credit Acceptance will be asked to approve the stock plan at its annual meeting later this year.

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