UCF’s Sean Snaith believes U.S. consumers are ready to spend.
The U.S. has exited the coronavirus pandemic-led recession – making it the shortest in U.S. history – according to Florida economist Sean Snaith.
But he warns that rising COVID-19 cases and rolling back reopening phases pose "real danger" to the economic recovery.
The U.S. economy was in recession in March and April, and Snaith says recent data suggest that recession may have ended in May or June. That would imply a recession that lasted three or four months, which would be less than the shortest contraction in U.S. history at six months.
In his latest quarterly forecast on the U.S. economy, he is projecting payroll job growth of a negative 5.8% in 2020, 5.4% in 2021, 2.7% in 2022 and 1.8% in 2023.
Snaith, the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting, had earlier said the "bulldozed" Florida economy won’t rebound to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels for more than a year. He forecast the Florida unemployment rate will top 10% in the fourth quarter of 2020, with payroll job losses of 767,700 this year.
Real GDP growth will bottom at -5.2% in 2020 before accelerating to 6.6% in 2021 and easing to 2.8% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023, he said.
"U.S. consumers are poised for solid spending growth," Snaith said. "Following the lockdowns, consumers will be ready to spend. The damage to the labor market will be a headwind for this growth, but as the pandemic fades, consumer confidence will rise. Household balance sheets are recovering, lower oil/gasoline prices and historically low interest rates will help feed consumer spending growth, particularly in 2021."
Low inventories and mortgage rates will underpin a late-cycle housing boost, he said, with projected housing starts rising from 1.2 million in 2020 to 1.48 million in 2023.
"The headline unemployment rate is expected to decline to 3.9% in 2023," Snaith said in his U.S. forecast. "Job growth will help ease the damage to the labor market from the lockdown, but the road to recovery for the labor market will take several years. The economy was closing in on full employment, with the acceleration of wage growth before the self-inflicted recession took its toll."
Sarasota-Manatee risky area for mortgage fraud
The Sarasota-Manatee region still ranks among the riskiest in the nation for mortgage fraud applications, although it has improved its standing.
The area was rankd 12th for mortgage fraud during the second quarter in a new study by real estate researcher CoreLogic.
That was down from sixth place three months ago. The two-county area was not even in the top 25 six months earlier.
Florida was again the hot spot for home loan application fraud in the quarter, with eight metros ranked in the top 15 for potential problems.
The company indexed mortgage fraud potential based on reviews of applications and how many were found to contain undisclosed real estate debt by the borrower, misrepresentations about the property, inaccurate income statements, falsified down payments, identify theft and misrepresentation about the property’s occupancy.
Local fraud risk was down by 16% over the year, CoreLogic said, while nationwide it fell nearly 23%.
"danger" - Google News
July 27, 2020 at 05:41PM
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Short recession has ended, but economist says recovery in danger - Sarasota Herald-Tribune
"danger" - Google News
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