opinion
Anyone can predict a tsunami is coming if they see an enormous wave heading toward them. It takes science, though, to predict when a tsunami will hit you while it is still 1,000 miles away. Similarly, science can foretell an out-of-control pandemic is on its way well before it gets out of control. How is this possible? It is possible because the dynamics of viral spread through a community obey the laws of physics and mathematics, but these dynamics are not intuitive for the general population.
I have long suspected that a misunderstanding about the rate at which a virus spreads during an outbreak is a possible reason why many people do not take the coronavirus seriously. Consequently, this misconception might be the reason many find lockdowns, social distancing and masking unnecessary.
My suspicions were confirmed when Will Gray, a local physician assistant, alerted me to a recent article in the prestigious journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences titled: “Correcting misperceptions of exponential coronavirus growth increases support for social distancing” (https://ift.tt/3jRJGj5). I quote:
“People mistakenly perceive the coronavirus to grow in a linear manner, underestimating its actual potential for exponential growth. We show that correcting this perceptual error significantly increases support for social distancing.”
To correct this common misperception, I have been modeling the number of cumulative positive cases of the coronavirus for several weeks. A wise person once said, “a picture is worth a thousand words.” My graph predicts the number of cumulative coronavirus cases in Greene County to be expected soon. I have used the most recent three weeks of data (circles) for my forecast (raw data from the New York Times). The growth rate of cases is now about 5% per day, with cumulative cases doubling every two weeks.
I hope this graph scares you. It certainly scares me, and I thank God the City Council voted the way it did, but I have yet to hear of aggressive enforcement of the masking mandate. No amount of political spin, wishful thinking or prayer can change what my forecast predicts. There is one and only one thing that can avoid the outcome predicted by my graph… it is our collective behavior. We should be a community united against the spread of this horrible virus. By changing our conduct, we can prevent what this chart foretells. That is another mathematical certainty.
People of southwest Missouri, do the right thing. Mask up, social-distance, and use hand sanitizer while you are still able to go out in public before the next nationwide shutdown takes effect, which is the latest recommendation of national health experts as I write this.
Dean Cuebas, Ph.D., is an associate professor emeritus, College of Natural and Applied Sciences, Missouri State University
"danger" - Google News
July 30, 2020 at 06:05AM
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Exponential coronavirus growth shows true danger - News-Leader
"danger" - Google News
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https://ift.tt/3f9EULr
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