With winds of change howling since the Rockets’ charter touched down after their expulsion from the NBA playoff bubble just over two months ago, a particularly unusual event will occur Wednesday. They will have a first-round draft pick.
That also could portend a much greater change to come.
In an offseason that has seen the departures of coach Mike D’Antoni and general manager Daryl Morey and efforts from James Harden and Russell Westbrook to similarly head out the door, the Rockets’ move to land a first-round pick could be the start of the rebuilding they still hope to delay.
With Harden pushing to be traded to the Brooklyn Nets to team with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the Rockets on Tuesday remained unwilling to accept any deal they deem inadequate, a person with knowledge of the team’s thinking said.
The Rockets were adamant, the individual had said Monday, that if they do trade their perennial MVP candidate, they must land a potential superstar successor along with draft assets, although they would prefer to keep Harden and continue to build around him. The team is similarly reluctant, he said, to move Westbrook with the market relatively sluggish and so far unable to yield the sort of talent that would convince Harden he could compete for a championship without his preferred move to the Nets.
The Rockets have not had a first-round pick since selecting Sam Dekker in 2015. But after years of trading their picks for short-term help (Ty Lawson, Lou Williams, Robert Covington) or to sweeten the trade offer to land Chris Paul, the Rockets agreed to deal Covington to Portland to bring back Trevor Ariza along with a pair of first-round picks, including the 16th selection Wednesday.
Given how much the Rockets coveted Covington, sacrificing Clint Capela and a first-round pick to get him last February, moving on so quickly seems to indicate the start of thinking long-range, rather than short-term.
That could signal a softening of the Rockets’ reluctance to start a rebuild, preparation if they do, or just a determination to uncharacteristically begin restocking shelves lacking draft picks.
The Rockets have no players they have drafted and just one (Chris Clemons) who began his career with them. If they trade Harden and Westbrook, they will not even have a player acquired by Morey — who was always extraordinarily busy in the trade market — in a swap.
The agreement with the Trail Blazers on Monday’s deal, the first for new general manager Rafael Stone, might stand alone rather than indicate what is to come next. But when the trade becomes official after the draft — the Blazers will be selecting on the Rockets’ behalf — it does place a premium on getting a solid hit or more in the return to the first round.
The last time the Rockets had a pick so early, in 2012, they whiffed, selecting forward Royce White, who never played for them. But they had three first-round picks that season, flipping one (Jeremy Lamb) in the deal to get Harden and selecting Terrence Jones with the 18th choice, two spots after White. They could afford then to swing for the fences with one of those picks.
Now, the novelty of the Rockets choosing in the first round and the relative lack of future first-round picks (even with a lottery-protected selection coming from the Trail Blazers next season) make the eventual success of Wednesday’s pick potentially crucial.
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The 2020 draft class, though maligned for lacking a clear No. 1 or multiple players expected to be franchise-changing stars, is considered to have good depth into the middle of the first round, where the Rockets suddenly find themselves.
Though Stone has no track record in the draft as a general manager, back when the Rockets used to draft players, he was a part of their determination to always select the best player available rather than for need. That would seem mandatory this season with the uncertainty about how long Harden and Westbrook will be the stars of the team or whom the Rockets might land if they complete trades to move them.
The middle of the first round could offer a healthy mix of outstanding shooters (Vanderbilt’s Aaron Nesmith), 3-and-D types (Florida State’s Devin Vassell, Stanford’s Josh Green, Villanova’s Saddiq Bey), point guards (Killian Hayes out of the French League, Alabama’s Kira Lewis Jr.), centers (Memphis’ Precious Achiuwa, Olympiacos’ Aleksej Pokusevski) and scorers (Kentucky’s Tyrese Maxey, RJ Hampton out of the Australian league and North Carolina’s Cole Anthony).
The Rockets’ evaluations likely had to kick into high gear when they landed a pick only two days before the draft, though Morey had said they were going thorough draft preparations throughout the NBA’s hiatus last spring in the hopes of getting one.
Regardless of whether they’re still building around Harden and Westbrook or preparing for a future without them, the Rockets seem most likely to choose the player they believe has the best long-term upside.
With their stars, they have five of their six top players in minutes per game back, with Ariza replacing the other, Covington. If the Rockets deal their stars, they are almost certain to have more veterans under contract. Either way, there would seem little expectation for a rookie to step into the rotation immediately.
That can be the consideration for new coach Stephen Silas later. On Wednesday, at least when the Rockets are on the clock, they can enjoy concerning themselves with the player coming in rather than the two who want out.
jonathan.feigen@chron.com
twitter.com/jonathan_feigen
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November 18, 2020 at 08:29AM
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