The Bears are fortunate to control their own playoff-pursuit destiny after surviving a six-game losing streak. But the prospect of beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers is a little daunting.
The Week 17 finale against the Packers has looked ominous ever since the Bears’ 2020 schedule came out. The Bears have finished the last six regular seasons against the Vikings (2014, 2016-19) and Lions (2015) — two NFC North rivals with similar vulnerabilities and luck as the Bears in clutch situations. The Bears, in fact, knocked the Vikings out of the playoff picture with a 24-10 victory at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 17 in 2018.
As Bears fans know, the Packers are a completely different animal. The bigger the game, the more daunting the challenge. The Bears, in fact, are 4-16 against the Packers in the final month of the regular season during the Brett Favre-Aaron Rodgers eras (1992-date). And that doesn’t include the 21-14 NFC Championship Game loss in 2011 at Soldier Field.
Three of those four December victories have come against Packers teams that were 3-11 (2005), 5-9 (2008) and 5-7-1 (2018) and had little or no chance to make the playoffs. The only time the Bears actually damaged the Packers’ playoff standing in a late-season showdown was in 2007, when Lovie Smith’s Bears whipped Favre and the Packers 35-7 at Soldier Field to cost the Packers the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
And as it turned out, even that didn’t matter. When the Giants upset the top-seeded Cowboys in the playoffs, the Packers ended up playing all their postseason games at Lambeau Field anyway — including a loss to the Giants in the NFC Championship Game.
Even the best Bears teams have had bad luck against the Packers in December. In 2006, Rex Grossman’s 0.0 passer rating in a dreadful Week 17 loss to the Packers was a harbinger of things to come in 2007, despite the Bears reaching the Super Bowl.
In 2010, the Bears had a chance to eliminate the Packers from playoff contention in Week 17, but lost 10-3 at Lambeau Field. It came back to haunt them when the Packers, given new life, beat the Bears 21-14 in the NFC Championship Game at Soldier Field — and won the Super Bowl.
In 2018, the Bears beat the Packers to clinch the NFC North title, but safety Eddie Jackson suffered a high ankle sprain on a clinching interception and he missed the playoff game against the Eagles.
Yes, even beating the Packers late in the season has come with a cost. If the Bears beat the Packers on Sunday and the Rams and Seahawks also win, the Bears will get a rematch against the Packers in a wild-card playoff game at Lambeau Field. Rodgers in a revenge game? Against the Bears? Long-time Bears fans can pick the score of that game already.
2. Believe It Or Not Dept.: The Bears have not made the playoffs as a wild-card team since 1994, under Dave Wannstedt — when they lost to the Patriots 13-3 in Week 17 to finish 9-7, but backed in when the Cowboys and Cardinals also lost.
The last time the Bears won in the final week of the regular season to make the playoffs was — are you sitting down? — in 1979, when they beat the Cardinals 42-6 on the day George “Mugs” Halas Jr. died to beat out the Redskins and ex-Bears coach Jack Pardee for the final wild-card spot by point-differential.
3. Considering the importance of the game and the Packers’ knack for outplaying the Bears in key games, Mitch Trubisky can solidify a claim to stick with the Bears in 2021 with a standout performance Sunday.
Trubisky’s resurgence has come against teams ranked 32nd (Jaguars), 31st (Lions), 30th (Texans) and 27th (Vikings) in total defense. But the Packers are seventh (though 16th in points allowed) and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, like Dom Capers before him, has won the battle more often than not.
It will be a telltale rematch vs. the Packers defense. Trubisky threw three touchdown passes and had a 77.2 passer rating in a 41-25 loss to the Packers in Week 12. But his rating was 45.6 before two garbage-time touchdown drives after the Packers took a 41-10 lead.
4. Trubisky is 1-4 with a 76.0 passer rating in five games against the Packers under Matt Nagy (six touchdowns, five interceptions). Only once has he had a passer rating above 77.2 — in the 24-17 victory at Soldier Field that clinched the NFC North title in 2018, when Trubisky threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions for a 120.4 rating.
5. A wide-open tight end is the sign of a good offense, and the Bears are getting there — albeit against poor defenses. Jimmy Graham scored two touchdowns, but his 30-yard gain on a catch-and-run in the second quarter might have been the most positive sign for the improving Bears offense. There was nobody near him.
Signing Graham to a two-year, $16 million contract raised some eyebrows, but Graham’s recent production in a limited role the past three games has pushed Graham from the “miss” to “moderate hit” category for general manager Ryan Pace — with 45 receptions, 451 yards and eight touchdowns, plus whatever mentorship he’s provided for rookie Cole Kmet.
6. Graham’s eight touchdowns are tied with Greg Olsen (2009) and Mike Ditka (1963) for the most by a Bears tight end since Ditka had 12 as a rookie in 1961.
Led by Graham and Kmet (21 receptions, 202 yards, two touchdowns), the Bears tight end production in 2020 (76-698, 9.2 avg., 10 touchdowns) has easily eclipsed last season (46-416, 9.0 avg., two touchdowns). It is the most since 2015 with Martellus Bennett, Zach Miller and Rob Housler (90-905, 10.1 avg., eight touchdowns).
7. The rejuvenated Bears offense has made huge leaps in five starts with Trubisky after seven with Nick Foles — in points (31st to third), yards (31st to ninth), yards per play (32nd to 10th) and rushing yards per game (32nd to fifth).
The revamped scheme that has sparked Trubisky doesn’t seem as well-suited for Foles. Would that make it tougher for Foles to step in should Trubisky suffer an injury?
“That’s a good question. I’ll have to think about that one,” quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo said. “There’s only probably 10 to 12 plays that are really different for somebody else. So there are plenty of calls on that sheet that we have confidence that both guys can be successful with.”
Foles gets a bad rap as a failed quarterback because he played in the worst scenario — against four top-10 defenses and with an offensive line that was in flux. He, like Trubisky, would be much more effective in the current offense.
8. Malik Willis Watch: The Liberty quarterback overcame the rust of a four-week layoff due to his own positive coronavirus test to pass for 220 yards and rush for 137 yards and four touchdowns in a 37-34 overtime upset of previously unbeaten and 12th-ranked Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl.
Willis is just the third player to pass for 200 or more yards and rush for four touchdowns in a game since 2000 — and in pretty good company with Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton at that.
9. Josh McCown Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Rams outside linebacker Leonard Floyd had two sacks in a loss to the Seahawks on Sunday to give him 9.5 for the season — more than triple what he had last season with the Bears (three).
Floyd also has 18 quarterback hits and 11 tackles-for-loss this season. He had 12 quarterback hits and three tackles for loss for the Bears last season.
10. Bear-ometer: 8-8 — vs. Packers (L).
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December 30, 2020 at 05:24AM
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1st-and-10: Bears’ path to the playoffs fraught with danger - Chicago Sun-Times
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