In a way, Joe Burrow and the unprecedented efficiency of the national champion LSU Tigers offense hurt Justin Jefferson when the 2020 NFL Draft rolled around.
It was very easy for draft analysts -- including yours truly -- along with NFL GMs, scouts, and head coaches to simply rule Jefferson's outrageous production (111 catches, 1,540 yards, and 18 touchdowns) in his final year with the Tigers as a byproduct of being thrown passes from the eventual No. 1 overall pick in a wide-open attack coordinated by a 30-year-old who already had experience under Sean Payton and made the meteoric jump to the same position with the Panthers.
Also, Ja'Marr Chase actually outperforming Jefferson in yards per reception (21.2 vs. 13.9) and touchdowns (20 vs. 18) created more skepticism about Jefferson reproducing anything close to the output from that perfect storm of productivity at LSU. Lastly, factor in this -- he played in the slot on 92.8% of his snaps. In most cases, that's an indicator of a limited receiver who needs space provided by that alignment to consistently get open. And much of his production came via the LSU scheme -- quick bubble screens, slants on RPOs, and deep over routes off play action.
Turns out -- Jefferson wasn't just hyper-productive because of Burrow, a savant offensive coordinator, or his pre-snap alignment. The fifth receiver picked in the 2020 NFL Draft handed out "L's" to those who doubted him once he stepped foot on an NFL field.
Since he was fully unleashed in Week 3, Jefferson has been the definition of instant impact. In that outing, the rookie took nine targets and amassed 175 yards on seven grabs with a touchdown. Since then, Jefferson has five other 100-plus yard outings and scored six more touchdowns.
Oh, and he's done all that while running just 33.3% of his routes from the slot. He's won with nasty releases off the line of scrimmage, veteran-like separation-creating nuance in his routes, and serious explosion down the field.
Can he win Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is his stiffest competition, and despite a lull in the play of the rocket-armed rookie after a scintillating start, voters typically gravitate to that position given its wide-ranging difficulty and importance. A quarterback has won OROY in five of the last 10 seasons.
Let's see how how Jefferson's stacks up with that last two wideouts to win OROY -- Odell Beckham in 2014 and Percy Harvin in 2009.
| Yards per route run | Number of catches on throws 20+ yards downfield | Forced missed tackles | YAC per reception | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Percy Harvin, 2009 |
2.34 |
5 |
16 |
6.1 |
|
Odell Beckham, 2014 |
2.75 |
10 |
15 |
5.3 |
|
Justin Jefferson, through Week 15 |
2.65 |
14 |
9 |
4.8 |
Very similar advanced statistics, and while Harvin and Beckham made more defenders miss in space, Jefferson has been clearly more dangerous down the football field.
Despite only playing 65 snaps combined in the first two games -- and ironically mostly playing in the slot -- Jefferson is tied for receptions for a first down (49). He almost single handedly revived a Vikings offense that looked completely flat after two weeks and, since, has only scored under 20 points twice.
With a strong final two games -- essentially, playing to the high standard he's already set for himself -- Jefferson will have a real opportunity to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. And with around 80 catches and close to 1,300 yards there won't be many thinking he was undeserving.
(All advanced statistics courtesy of TruMedia unless otherwise stated)
"many" - Google News
December 25, 2020 at 10:56PM
https://ift.tt/3rw3jRp
Vikings' Justin Jefferson having historic season: How and why many missed on possible Offensive Rookie of Year - CBS Sports
"many" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2OYUfnl
https://ift.tt/3f9EULr
No comments:
Post a Comment