Never leaving a stone unturned, general manager John Schneider, coach Pete Carroll, and the Seahawks are always "in on everything." With future Hall of Fame defensive end J.J. Watt expected to be released by the Texans and become an unrestricted free agent, there's absolutely no chance the team won't inquire about his interest in coming to the Pacific Northwest.
As far as the likelihood of Watt actually coming to Seattle, however, the odds seem slim for several reasons, starting with the organization's financial situation.
Currently, the Seahawks have an estimated $4.95 million in available cap space to work with based on a $181 million salary cap projection. Even if the NFL has a $185 million cap threshold as recently reported, that's still not enough wiggle room to likely be able to afford Watt.
Schneider does have a number of different ways he can create cap space, starting with transitioning a portion of Russell Wilson's base salary for 2021 to a signing bonus. This could open up $12 million in instant cap space and Seattle could do something similar with star linebacker Bobby Wagner to provide more financial flexibility.
Additionally, the Seahawks have numerous players such as receiver Tyler Lockett, defensive end Carlos Dunlap, and defensive tackle Jarran Reed who have one year left under contract and could have their respective 2021 cap hits lowered with extensions. Schneider could convert their existing base salaries into a signing bonus and spread that money over the extension years. Trades could also be on the table to create cap room while adding draft picks in the process.
But therein lies the second big issue when it comes to evaluating a potential fit for Watt in Seattle. Reed and Dunlap are scheduled to have cap hits near $14 million for 2021 and it's been speculated that at least one of those players won't be on the team next year as a result. That's a ton of money already invested in the defensive line.
In order to sign Watt, the Seahawks would likely have to part ways with Dunlap, who doesn't have any guaranteed money left on his contract and would incur no dead cap charges if released or traded. His departure would generate $14.037 million in immediate cap relief. Reed, on the other hand, would incur a $5 million dead cap charge, creating far less cap space overall.
Could Watt still be a game-changer for Seattle's defense? Absolutely. Even after a down season by his standards in which he only produced 5.0 sacks in 2020, he's only two years removed from producing 16.0 sacks and seven forced fumbles.
The (multi) million dollar question Schneider and the rest of Seattle's front office will have to ask themselves is whether or not signing Watt ultimately makes the team's defense better than retaining Dunlap would. Considering they possess far different skill sets and play different positions, that's a complicated question to answer.
There's no question Dunlap provided a jolt for the team's pass rush after being acquired from the Bengals last season and shined at the LEO defensive end spot for the Seahawks, registering 5.0 sacks and 14 quarterback hits in just eight games. Watt produced the same number of sacks and only three more quarterback hits in twice as many games, though he did have seven pass deflections, returned a pick for a touchdown, and had 14 tackles for loss.
Dunlap has also been far more durable, playing in at least 14 games in each of the past nine seasons and suiting up for all 16 games six times during that span. Watt, meanwhile, has battled numerous injuries and missed a combined 34 games over the past five seasons after not missing any games in his first five seasons.
Where Watt holds the advantage comes in regard to his versatility and strengths as a run defender. At 288 pounds, he offers the perfect size to play base defensive end and reduce inside to 3-tech defensive tackle on passing downs in Carroll's scheme. He earned an 81.0 run defense grade from Pro Football Focus in 2020 and has only scored below 75.0 twice in his 10-year career, with one of those coming when he played in just three games in 2016.
For most of his career, Dunlap has been a respectable run defender on his own accord, including receiving an elite 89.0 grade from PFF in 2019. But last year, he took a huge step back with a 58.4 grade and he doesn't provide the flexibility to play in the interior on early downs as Watt would.
Personnel-wise, an argument can be made Watt fills a bigger need as well. While L.J. Collier took a significant step forward in 2020, Rasheem Green hasn't developed as hoped and neither player has come close to playing at a Pro Bowl-caliber level. At the LEO spot, Seattle hopes to have 2020 second-round pick Darrell Taylor back ready for training camp and Alton Robinson as well as impending free agent Benson Mayowa could also succeed rushing off the edge at that position at a fraction of the cost.
With both players turning 32 years old this month, Schneider will have to decide whether Watt or Dunlap holds more value in their defensive scheme in the short-term, with the construction of the rest of the roster being a critical part of that assessment.
When it's all said and done, Watt will likely have other suitors either willing to offer more money or that present better fits than the Seahawks. The Titans should be in contention for his services due to his past relationship with coach Mike Vrabel, while a homecoming to Wisconsin to play for the Packers may be appealing and hooking up with his brother T.J. Watt in Pittsburgh may intrigue. Other teams will be in the mix for the three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year as well.
But as always, expect Schneider to throw his hat into the ring and at least see what Watt is looking for salary-wise. If interest is mutual and he falls within the price range the team is willing to pay, while financial hurdles and difficult roster decisions await in consequence, Seattle has plenty of ways to make a deal happen.
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February 13, 2021 at 01:31AM
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Many Dominoes Must Fall For Seahawks to Sign J.J. Watt - SeahawkMaven
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