- The first typhoon of 2021 is intensifying in the Philippine Sea.
- Surigae may bring flooding rain, winds and coastal flooding to the Philippines beginning this weekend.
- Its uncertain track could pose a bigger danger for parts of the islands.
Typhoon Surigae is becoming a formidably strong typhoon and may lash parts of the Philippines with flooding rain, strong winds, battering waves and coastal flooding beginning this weekend.
This first typhoon of 2021 – referred to as Bising in the Philippines – became a tropical depression about 600 miles southwest of Guam late Tuesday night local time.
Surigae then rapidly intensified by Friday, exhibiting a classic eye in infrared satellite imagery as it was over 400 miles east of the central Philippines.
The intensity forecast is relatively straightforward.
Ample deep, warm water in the Philippine Sea and a lack of shearing winds will allow Surigae to continue to intensify through this weekend, possibly to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane.
The track forecast is more challenging.
Surigae is expected to track northwest, then eventually turn north, then northeast by next week.
But the timing of those turns is critical. There are two general scenarios:
-If Surigae turns north sooner, its core of strongest winds would remain east of the Philippines, sparing the islands its worst impacts. This option is currently expected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
-If Surigae turns north later, its core of most intense winds could come dangerously close to the central Philippines this weekend, particularly the Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. Furthermore, this more northwesterly track could then bring parts of the northern Philippines into a more direct threat from Surigae next week. Computer models are trending toward this option.
Furthermore, Surigae is expected to slow down beginning this weekend, another complication to the forecast.
Impacts Expected
Regardless of which scenario plays out, some impacts will be felt in the Philippines into next week.
Bands of heavy rain will lash the central and northern Philippines, particularly areas closest to the Philippine Sea.
Surigae's slower movement means some of these areas could pick up over 12 inches of rain through next week. This could trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Rainfall Potential From Surigae
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. )Coastal flooding can be expected, particularly in bays and inlets, as the center of Surigae passes near. Battering waves riding atop the storm surge could lead to beach erosion and damage to structures near the Philippine Sea coast.
Given the track uncertainty, the wind impacts are most uncertain.
Tropical-storm-force winds capable of at least damage to trees and high-risk structures are most possible in the Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region Sunday into Monday local time.
If the core of Surigae tracks nearer to the coast, the threat of more destructive winds would increase.
Eight to nine tropical cyclones rake the Philippines each year, on average, more than any country on Earth, according to the Philippines' weather service, PAGASA.
They can strike any time of year, but July through October is their peak season, when 70% of typhoons develop.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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April 17, 2021 at 03:33AM
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Typhoon Surigae Rapidly Intensifies, Potential Philippines Danger Beginning This Weekend | The Weather Channel - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com - The Weather Channel
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