Even as China gradually gets back on its feet from the devastation of its COVID-19 outbreak and quarantine earlier this year, its roughly 70,000 movie screens remain dark, one aspect of everyday life that remains locked down by the government.
President Xi has has indicated no rush to reopen the nation's theaters, cutting off the world's second-largest market, which was close to usurping the United States as No. 1. China's strict cultural ministry only permits a limited number of international films into the country, and Hollywood has often tried to break through by tailoring scripts to remove elements undesirable to censors or adding scenes with popular Chinese stars.
The enduring lockdown on Chinese theaters was chronicled by The New York Times in a recent article, stating that it was one factor "holding back the Chinese economy when the world needs it most." The article noted that even though theaters for plays and concerts had reopened, Xi had continued to keep cinemas shuttered. "If anyone wants to watch a movie, just watch it online," Xi said during a public appearance on March 31.
But what are the actual losses for both Hollywood and other filmmakers around the globe? The answer, in a word: Massive.
China's total contribution to the global box office in 2019 was $9.2 billion. The U.S. tally was $11.2 billion. Together, they make up nearly half of the world's total movie ticket sales of $42.5 billion.
"China can often save a movie," said Paul Dergarabedian, box office analyst with the media metrics tracker ComScore. He cited Terminator Genysis and the two Pacific Rim movies as titles that benefited from being Chinese hits. "Some of those films that didn't do well in North America did do well internationally, particularly in China."
He called China "the savior of many a would-be blockbuster that, had they relied merely on their North American box office, would have remained really in the red."
If the country's theaters remain closed indefinitely, the lost revenue could be catastrophic. That's more than Hollywood studios can reckon with at the moment, as the effort continues to both restart production of new films and get North American theaters operational again. Studio executives don't know when that will happen, and even as they barrel toward the late-July release of would-be blockbusters like Christopher Nolan's Tenant.
This adds another layer to the already complicated relationship between studios and China's State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television, which typically allows fewer than 40 international films to screen per year. In addition, China enforces periodic "blackouts" when no international films can screen publicly.
If China's leadership wants to hold back the reopening of movie theaters, pressuring them to do otherwise could backfire, making a bad situation worse.
ComScore's total $9.2 billion number for China's 2019 box office only tells part of the story. Of that number, about $2.9 billion went to Hollywood films. In 2018, the country's total box office was about $8.8 billion, and $3.2 billion was for Hollywood films. In 2017, the total was $8.3 billion, while approximately $3.4 billion went to American studios.
That means that even as China's box office prowess has increased, the share of money going to Hollywood has slightly diminished. Will the prolonged shutdown of theaters accelerate that decline, or will Chinese moviegoers be so hungry for cinematic escape that the box office comes roaring back?
Per usual in Hollywood, the answer is the old maxim: Nobody knows anything. Except that there's a lot of money to be found in China, for those who can in to collect it.
"danger" - Google News
June 19, 2020 at 07:06PM
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China's Darkened Movie Theaters Pose a Danger to Hollywood - Vanity Fair
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