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Saturday, March 6, 2021

Forecast: fire danger Sunday; the spring-like pattern continues - KOMU 8

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Hello, all! What a BEAUTIFUL day we had for Saturday! Temperatures across the area got into the upper 50s and lower 60s, just as we predicted. If you missed this afternoon's outdoor weather opportunity, you'll get a few more swings at bat before rain moves in starting Wednesday. We'll dive into the forecast in detail below. 

REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND

Things will be calm for Saturday night, with lows in the upper 30s to near 40. If you're planning on a bonfire, tonight (Saturday night) is the night to do it. That's because we anticipate fire danger concerns for Sunday afternoon. 

Temp. Graph Tomorrow.png

During the day Sunday, expect a quick warmup into the middle 60s. Winds will pick up, especially west of HWY 63.

ECMWF ADI Wind Gust Cast.png

The warmer temperatures will allow humidity values to drop into the 30-40% range, which - combined with the gusty winds - will allow fires to spread out of control quickly. You will want to avoid burning outdoors if at all possible. The main area of concern is shown below:

Jacob Surface Map.png

Fire danger concerns will come to an end Sunday evening as the wind dies down and relative humidity rises. 

EARLY WEEK: FEELING LIKE SPRING!

If you miss Sunday's beautiful weather, you'll get a chance to enjoy the outdoors both Monday and Tuesday. We're expecting highs both days to reach the middle and upper 60s, if not the lower 70s in spots. How's that for spring-like? 

FCST Weekend Planner.png

If the thought of near 70 degree weather wasn't enough to trigger thoughts of spring, we'll have another springtime feature move in for Tuesday: humidity. I think we will notice the air feeling a bit more "saturated" by Tuesday afternoon. It will NOT feel "muggy" but you'll likely notice the increased moisture by Tuesday and especially by Wednesday. 

The increasing moisture will set the stage for yet another spring-like occurrence beginning Wednesday: showers and thunderstorms. 

LATE WEEK: RAINY, RUMBLY, AND COOLER

Tuesday into Wednesday, we expect a storm system to form up to the north. It will push a cold front down our way Wednesday into Thursday, but this will be a slow-moving front. It may actually stall near us Thursday into Friday, becoming a stationary front.

Jacob Precip Type Categories.png

IF this happens, we could see multiple rounds of rain (some of which may be heavy) Wednesday night through Friday afternoon. Where this happens will depend on if the front stalls and where it sets up. 

GFS-ECMWF ADI Precip. Accum..png

Right now, it looks like the severe weather threat will be low. It is NOT nonexistent, but the ingredients don't look to really align (at least not at this time). Please stay with us these next few days as we know more. This could change. 

Regardless of how much rain we see this upcoming week, the front will eventually pass through and cool us down quite a bit. Temperatures by next weekend will likely be near or slightly below average, with highs in the lower 50s and lows near freezing. 

INT FCST PM Extended Forecast.png

Have a great rest of your weekend! 

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"danger" - Google News
March 07, 2021 at 06:15AM
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Forecast: fire danger Sunday; the spring-like pattern continues - KOMU 8
"danger" - Google News
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